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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELING

Item #d95jan28

"Rapid Climate Transitions in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model," S. Rahmstorf (Inst. Meereskunde, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Ger.), 82-85. Recent geochemical data suggest that rapid climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic at the end of the last glacial resulted when ocean circulation switched between a warm, deep mode and a cold, shallow mode. The simulations presented here show this kind of transition, triggered by a brief freshwater pulse, resulting in a drop in sea surface temperature by up to 5·C within 10 years.

Item #d95jan29

"Destabilization of the Thermohaline Circulation by Atmospheric Eddy Transports," M. Nakamura (Ctr. Meteor. & Oceanog., Mass. Inst. Technol., Cambridge MA 02139), P.H. Stone, J. Marotzke, J. Clim., 7(12), 1870-1882, Dec. 1994.

Simple process models were developed to investigate the role of atmosphere-ocean feedbacks in the stability of the current mode of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A positive feedback between meridional atmospheric transport of moisture and the high-latitude sinking thermohaline circulation was found to destabilize the latter. In addition, experiments show that results from coupled models that require adjustments in the surface fluxes must be interpreted with caution. (See related Res. News note.)

Item #d95jan30

Three related items from Global & Planetary Change, 9(3-4), Dec. 1994:

"Simulating Past Climates. The Data-Model Connection," R.Z. Poore (U.S. Geol. Survey, MS 955, Natl. Ctr., Reston VA 22092), M.A. Chandler, 165-167. An editorial on the cooperation needed between data and modeling groups for successful paleoclimatic modeling. The following two papers describe such, involving the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) and the GISS GCM.

"Joint Investigations of the Middle Pliocene Climate I: PRISM Paleoenvironmental Reconstructions," H. Dowsett (U.S. Geol. Survey, MS 970, Natl. Ctr., Reston VA 22092), R. Thompson et al., 169-195.

"Joint Investigations of the Middle Pliocene Climate II: GISS GCM Northern Hemisphere Results," M. Chandler (NASA Goddard Inst. Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), D. Rind, R. Thompson, 197-219.

Item #d95jan31

"Global Emissions Inventories to Aid Atmospheric Modelers," T.E. Graedel (AT&T Bell Labs., Murray Hill NJ 07974), Eos, 75(50), 585, 591, Dec. 13, 1994.

Describes the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) of the IGBP International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project, which is developing a standardized emissions inventory intended to remove some of the uncertainty inherent in intermodel comparisons.

Item #d95jan32

"NCAR CCM2 Simulation of the Modern Antarctic Climate," R.-Y. Tzeng (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Natl. Central Univ., Chungli, Taiwan 320, Republic of China), D.H. Bromwich et al., J. Geophys. Res., 99(D11), 23,131-23,148, Nov. 20, 1994.

Finds the performance of version 2 of the NCAR Community Climate Model to be much better than that of CCM1-T42, and therefore preferable for climate change studies especially over Antarctica.

Item #d95jan33

"Albedo as a Modulator of Climate Response to Tropical Deforestation," P.A. Dirmeyer (Ctr. Ocean-Land-Atmos. Studies, 401 Powder Mill Rd., S. 302, Calverton MD 20705), J. Shukla, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D10), 20,863-20,877, Oct. 20, 1994.

Uses a GCM with land surface properties represented by the simplified Simple Biosphere model to evaluate deforestation effects in the Amazon basin. The change in climate, particularly rainfall, strongly depends on the change in surface albedo that accompanies deforestation.

Item #d95jan34

"Initial Radiative Perturbations and Their Responses in the Adem Thermodynamic Model," R. Garduño (Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, Mexico), J. Adem, World Resour. Rev., 6(3), 343-349, Oct. 1994.

Initial radiative perturbation (increase of net radiation at the tropopause) is computed for a CO₂ doubling and a ±1% solar constant change. Corresponding surface temperature changes are examined with and without climate feedbacks.

Item #d95jan35

"Impact of Increased CO₂ on Simulated ENSO-Like Phenomena," T.R. Knutson (GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542), S. Manabe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(21), 2295-2298, Oct. 15, 1994.

Multi-century experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM with 4xCO₂ show that, despite an order 5K warming of the tropical Pacific and an order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor, ENSO-like SST fluctuations do not intensify, but rather decrease slightly.

Item #d95jan36

"A Proposal for the Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Atmospheric General Circulation Models," I.M. Held (GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542), M.J. Suarez, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(10), 1825-1830, Oct. 1994.

Proposes a benchmark calculation for evaluating the dynamical cores of GCMs independently of the physical parameterizations, which is particularly appropriate for comparing climate models. Illustrates by comparing a spectral and a finite difference model.

Item #d95jan37

"Transient Temperature and Sea Level Response of a Two-Dimensional Ocean-Climate Model to Greenhouse Gas Increases," L.D.D. Harvey (Dept. Geog. Univ. Toronto, Toronto ON M5S 1A1, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 99(C9), 18,447-18,466, Sep. 15, 1994.

Most experiments show a transient reduction in the thermohaline overturning flux of 15-30%, although in some cases a near-total circulation collapse occurs within the first 100 years and lasts 700-1000 years. The steady-state ocean warming is roughly uniform with depth, and in most experiments is equal to the global mean surface warming (3·C for 6 W/m-2 forcing perturbation), which produces a sea level rise of 2-3 m due to thermal expansion.

Item #d95jan38

"The Experimental Cloud Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) for Cloud-Radiation Research," C.M. Platt (CSIRO, Pvt. Bag 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), S.A. Young et al., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(9), 1635-1654, Sep. 1994.

The ECLIPS data are a valuable resource for cloud parameterizations in models, and for model validations.

Item #d95jan39

"CARAIB: A Global Model of Terrestrial Biological Productivity," P. Warnant (Inst. Astrophys., Univ. Liège, 5 ave. Cointe, B-4000 Liège, Belg.), L. François, et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(3), 255-270, Sep. 1994. (See Global Climate Change Digest, Nov.-Dec. 1994.)

Item #d95jan40

"Hydrologic and Atmospheric Models: The (Continuing) Problem of Discordant Scales," S.W. Hostetler (USGS, 3215 Marine St., Boulder CO 80303), Clim. Change, 27(4), 345-350, Aug. 1994.

A lengthy comment on the difficulties of relating global, regional and local scales in models.

Item #d95jan41

Two items in J. Geophys. Res., 99(D8), Aug. 20, 1994:

"Radiative-Convective Model with an Explicit Hydrologic Cycle. 2. Sensitivity to Large Changes in Solar Forcing," N.O. Rennó (Lawrence Livermore Natl. Lab., POB 808, Livermore CA 94550), P.H. Stone, K.A. Emanuel, 17,001-17,020. Cumulus convection parameterization schemes currently used in GCMs employ different assumptions about moistening, causing the critical solar forcing for a runaway greenhouse effect to be very sensitive to the convection scheme used and the microphysics of cumulus convection.

"Characteristics of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange [STE] in a General Circulation Model," P.W. Mote (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK), J.R. Holton, B.A. Boville, 16,815-16,829. Examines mass and water vapor exchange and the behavior of idealized tracers and parcels to diagnose STE in the NCAR CCM2. The model correctly represents the seasonality of mass exchange, but values are uniformly too strong. Water vapor indicates that tropical exchange is not well represented, a situation that could influence model studies of aircraft emissions.

Item #d95jan42

"Storm Tracks in a High-Resolution GCM with Doubled Carbon Dioxide," N.M.J. Hall (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Reading, 2 Early Gate, Whiteknights, Reading, Berkshire RG6 2AU, UK), B.J. Hoskins et al., Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 120(519), 1209-1230, July 1994 (Part B).

On synoptic time scales, indicators of storm-track activity such as eddy kinetic energy are shifted northwards and intensified downstream by doubled CO₂, especially in the Atlantic. Total zonal-mean poleward energy transport is only slightly different, but doubled CO₂ changes the transient eddy contribution.

Item #d95jan43

"Sensitivity of a Coupled Atmosphere-Dynamic Upper Ocean GCM to Variations of CO₂, Solar Constant, and Orbital Forcing," J. Syktus (Div. Atmos. Res., CSIRO, Priv. Bag 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), H. Gordon, J. Chappell, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(15), 1599-1602, July 15, 1994.

Shows that orbital forcing effects depend strongly on CO₂ concentration, suggesting that the Quaternary "ice age" mode of climate may have been initiated by a CO₂ decrease below a critical value, probably 350-450 ppm.

Item #d95jan44

"Photosynthetic Climate in Selected Regions During the Northern Hemisphere Growing Season," R.T. Pinker (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Maryland, College Pk. MD 20742), I. Laszlo, F. Miskolczi, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(2), 117-125, June 1994.

Provides the first consistent information on the temporal and spatial variability in photosynthetic radiation on a continental scale for developing new parameterizations of net primary productivity and evapotranspiration.

Item #d95jan45

"Assessing the Onset of Spring: A Climatological Perspective," M.D. Schwartz (Dept. Geog., Sabin Hall, Univ. Wisconsin, POB 413, Milwaukee WI 53201), Phys. Geog., 14(6), 536-550, Nov.-Dec. 1993.

Uses 1908-1987 climatic records and phenological models to document the "green wave," a biospheric event signaling corresponding changes in the physical nature of the surface layer and in large-scale weather patterns. This association is relevant to many types of global change models.

Specialized Papers

Item #d95jan46

"Sensitivity of a GCM Climate Simulation to Differences in Continental versus Maritime Cloud Drop Size," J.T. Kiehl (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), J. Geophys. Res., 99(D11), 23,107-23,115, Nov. 20, 1994.

Item #d95jan47

Three items from J. Geophys. Res., 99(D10), Oct. 20, 1994:

"Climate Statistics from the [NCAR CCM2]," J.J. Hack (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), B.A. Boville et al., 20,785-20,813.

"The Simulated Earth Radiation Budget of the [NCAR CCM2] and Comparisons with [ERBE]," J.T. Kiehl (addr. immed. above), J.J. Hack, B.P. Briegleb, 20,815-20,827.

"Response of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model to Radiative Forcing of Tropical Clouds," S.C. Sherwood (Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), V. Ramanathan et al., 20,829-20,845.

Item #d95jan48

Three items from ibid., 99(D9), Sep. 20, 1994:

"Response of a General Circulation Model to a Change in Cloud Solar Forcing: Model Feedbacks and Comparison with Satellite Data," J.A. Ridout (Naval Res. Lab., 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Box 2, Monterey CA 93943), B. Chertok, R. Gelaro, 18,555-18,576.

"Simulating Fluxes from Heterogeneous Land Surfaces: Explicit Subgrid Method Employing the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS)," A. Seth (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), P. Giorgi, R.E. Dickinson, 18,651-18,667.

"Water Activities, Densities and Refractive Indices of Aqueous Sulfates and Sodium Nitrate Droplets of Atmospheric Importance," I.N. Tang (Brookhaven Natl. Lab, Upton NY 11973), H.R. Munkelwitz, 18,801-18,808.

Item #d95jan49

"Climatology and Variability in the ECHO Coupled GCM," M. Latif (M. Planck Inst. Meteor., Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Ger.), T. Stockdale et al., Tellus, 46A(4), 351-366, Aug. 1994.

Item #d95jan50

"Mean Climate and Transience in the Tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to Convective Parameterization," J. Slingo (Ctr. Global Atmos. Modeling, Dept. Meteor., Univ. Reading, Reading RG6 2AU, UK), M. Blackburn et al., Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 120(518), 881-922, July 1994 (Part A).

Item #d95jan51

"Sea-Ice Dynamics and CO₂ Sensitivity in a Global Climate Model," D. Pollard (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), S.L. Thompson, Atmos.-Ocean, 32(2), 449-467, June 1994.

Item #d95jan52

"Sensitivity of the Australian Surface Hydrology and Energy Budgets to a Doubling of CO₂," R.A. Coleman (Bur. Meteor. Res. Ctr., GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia), B.J. McAvaney, R.T. Wetherald, Aust. Meteor. Mag., 43(2), 105-116, June 1994.