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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 7, JULY 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
OF GENERAL INTEREST: HEALTH IMPACTS

Item #d95jul17

"Malaria and Climate: Sensitivity of Malaria Potential Transmission to Climate," P.H. Martin (Inst. for Remote Sensing Applications, European Commission, TP 440, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy), M.G. Lefebvre, Ambio, 24(4), 200-207, June 1995.

Uses the Malaria Potential Occurrence Zone (MOZ) model to calculate first-order estimates of climate change impacts on malaria. Scenarios generated by five GCMs reveal an increase in seasonal malaria at the expense of perennial malaria. This is cause for great concern, because seasonal malaria is most likely to lead to epidemics among unprepared or nonimmune populations. Hence climate change could trigger mass migrations of environmental refugees, severely stressing national and international health infrastructures. Malaria could become a public health problem for developed countries within decades.

Item #d95jul18

"Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk," W.J.M. Martens (Dept. Math., Univ. Limburg, POB 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, Neth.), L.W. Niessen et al., Environ. Health Perspectives, 103(5), 458 ff., May 1995.

GCM scenarios of climate change were incorporated into an integrated linked-system model to predict changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century, which incorporates the concept of disability-affected life years as a single measure of disease impact. Results suggest a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. Incidence of infection is sensitive to climate change in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic.

Item #d95jul19

"Ocular and Dermatologic Health Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure from the Ozone Hole in Southern Chile," O.D. Schein (116 Wilmer Bldg., Johns Hopkins Hosp., Baltimore MD 21287), C. Vicencio et al., Amer. J. Publ. Health, 85(4), 546-550, Apr. 1995.

To investigate numerous anecdotal reports of acute ocular and dermatologic disease in humans and animals from this region, medical records were reviewed, ocular examinations were made on representative animal populations, and the ambient UV-B exposure during the time of maximum thinning of the ozone layer was estimated to be a 1% increase in annual average exposure. Results do not support lay reports of ocular and dermatologic disease associated with the ozone hole over southern Chile. However, should the ambient exposure increase, the probability of adverse UV-related chronic health effects may increase.