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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: METHODS

Item #d95jun48

"An Approach for Treating the Uncertainties in the Impact of Climate Change," Y. Gu (Cellular & Environ. Physiol. Dept., Scottish Crop Res. Inst., Dundee DD2 5DA, UK), J.W. Crawford et al., Environ. Pollut., 83, 87-93, 1994.

Uses causal graphs for explicit representation of the links between climatic factors and crop yield. Uses probabilities to express the uncertainties with the links, and applies Bayes' theorem to deal with uncertainty reasonings. This approach allows the prediction to be updated as results from improved climate and crop models become available.

Item #d95jun49

"Recent and Future Climate Change in East Asia," M. Hulme (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Z.-C. Zhao, T. Jiang, Intl. J. Climatol., 14(6), 637-658, July 1994.

Examines climate change over the past 100 years (from instrument records) and projects it over the next 100 years (using results from climate model experiments). The region has undoubtedly warmed over the last century; the substantial role of urbanization cannot account for all the temperature change. Illustrates a flexible composite-model approach to regional climate change scenario construction which can explicitly incorporate the effects of model uncertainty. The scenario presented suggests that by 2050, mean conditions are expected to be warmer than the extremely warm seasonal anomalies of the most recent decade.

Specialized Paper

Item #d95jun50

"Comparison of Two General Circulation Models to Downscale Temperature and Precipitation Under Climate Change," I. Matyasovszky (Dept. Meteor., Eotvos Lorand Univ., Ludovika ter 2, 1083 Budapest, Hungary), I. Bogardi, Water Resources Res., 30(12), 3437-3448, Dec. 1994.