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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AGRICULTURE

Item #d95jun53

"Risk Assessment Under Current and Double CO₂ Conditions for United States Wheat Yields," T.A. Barry (Dept. Agron., Univ. Calif., Davis CA 95616), S. Geng, World Resour. Rev., 7(1), 25-46, Mar. 1995.

Simulations quantify first-order risk (the probability of crop failure) and second-order risk (the degree of uncertainty of maintaining the mean yield for a growing condition). Overall, with present cropping systems, first-order risk increases by 20% with doubled CO₂. Second-order risk decreases at locations that currently produce the majority of wheat in the Great Plains. However, at these locations the mean yields greatly decrease and first-order risk increases substantially with doubled CO₂, even when mitigation measures are taken into account.

Item #d95jun54

"Potential Effects of Global Climatic Change on the Phenology and Yield of Maize in Venezuela," C.E. Maytín (CIELAT, Facultad Ciencias, Univ. Los Andes, Mérida 5105, Venezuela), M.F. Acevedo et al., Clim. Change, 29(2), 189-211, Feb. 1995.

Simulations employed four global greenhouse effects scenarios and one deforestation-induced regional climate change scenario, and evaluated the effects of varying temperature, precipitation and incoming solar radiation. For the two maize cultivars studied, greenhouse scenarios caused yield to decrease in both cultivars at all three sites, while the deforestation scenario produced small changes.

Item #d95jun55

"Relating United States Crop Land Use to Natural Resources and Climate Change," K.G. Hubbard (Dept. Agric. Meteor., 242 Chase Hall, Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln NE 68583), F.J. Flores-Mendoza, J. Clim., 8(2), 329-335, Feb. 1995.

Uses crop land-use models to predict crop area indices for various climate change scenarios. For a warming of 3.5-5.9° C corn and soybean production areas may decline, and wheat and sorghum production areas may expand. If warming is accompanied by a 1%-10% decrease in precipitation, areas for corn and soybean could decrease by 20% and 40% respectively, and areas for sorghum and wheat could increase by 80% and 70% respectively.

Item #d95jun56

"Interacting Effects of CO₂ Concentration, Temperature and Nitrogen Supply on the Photosynthesis and Composition of Winter Wheat Leaves," E. Delgado, . .D.W. Lawlor (Biochem. & Physiol. Dept., Rothamsted Exp. Sta., Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK), Plant, Cell & Environ., 17(11), 1205-1213, Nov. 1994.

Doubling CO₂ results in slightly greater photosynthetic capacity and no differences in carboxylation efficiency or apparent quantum yield. Nitrogen supply and temperature have large effects on photosynthetic characteristics but do not interact with elevated CO₂. Nitrogen deficiency results in decreased protein content, photosynthetic capacity and carboxylation efficiency. A temperature increase also reduces these components and shortens the effective life of the leaves.

Item #d95jun57

"Annual and Seasonal Climate and Climatic Changes in the Canadian Prairies Simulated by the CCC [Can. Clim. Ctr.] GCM," I.R. Sanders (Water Resour. Inst., Univ. Lethbridge, Lethbridge AB T1K 3M4, Can.), J.M. Byrne, Atmos.-Ocean, 32(3), 621-641, Sep. 1994.

GCM-simulated increases in mean annual temperature resulting from CO₂ doubling are on the order of 5-6° C. Increases in mean annual precipitation are 5%-15%. The effects on the growing season and moisture regime have the potential to affect agricultural practices in the region.

Item #d95jun58

"Shifting Uses for Natural Resources in a Changing Climate," R. Darwin (Econ. Res. Service, U.S. Dept. Agric., 1301 New York Ave NW, Rm. 408, Washington DC 20005), J. Lewandrowski et al., World Resour. Rev., 6(4), 559-569, Dec. 1994.

In contrast to most previous studies of the impacts of climate change on world agricultural systems, this study links economic activities to land resources that are determined by climate. It also accounts for farmers adopting their crop mix to altered climate conditions. Despite negative impacts in some regions, climate change will have a relatively small (ñ3%) impact on the long term ability of global agriculture to meet future food demands. This depends, however, on the ability to shift crop production to new locations, even across national borders, which could in turn damage fragile ecosystems.

Specialized Papers

Item #d95jun59

"Effects of Climate Change on Grain Maize Yield Potential in the European Community," J. Wolf (Dept. Theoret. Production Ecol., Wageningen Agric. Univ., Bornsesteeg 65, POB 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Neth.), C.A. Van Diepen, Clim. Change, 29(3), 299-331, Mar. 1995.

Item #d95jun60

"The Potential Impact of Global Warming on Summer/Autumn Cauliflower Growth in the UK," D.C.E. Wurr (Hort. Res. Intl., Wellesbourne, Warwick CV35 9EF, UK), J.R. Fellows, A.J. Hambidge, Agric. & For. Meteor., 72(3-4), 181-193, Jan. 1995.

Item #d95jun61

"The Effects of CO₂, Temperature and Their Interaction on the Growth and Yield of Carrot (Daucus carota L.)," T.R. Wheeler ( Dept. Agric., Univ. Reading, Earley Gate, POB 236, Reading RG6 2AT, UK), J.I.L. Morison et al., Plant, Cell & Environ., 17(12), 1275-1284, Dec. 1994.

Item #d95jun62

"Effects of Climate Change on Silage Maize Production Potential in the European Community," J. Wolf (Dept. Theoret. Production Ecol., Wageningen Agric. Univ., Bornsesteeg 65, POB 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Neth.), C.A. van Diepen, Agric. & For. Meteor., 71(1-2), 33-60, Oct. 1994.