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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEMS

Item #d95jun71

"Potential Feedbacks of Northern Wetlands on Climate Change: An Outline of an Approach to Predict Climate-Change Impact," S.D. Bridgham (Dept. Biol. Sci., Univ. Notre Dame, Notre Dame IN 46556), C.A. Johnston et al., BioScience, 45(4), 262-273, Apr. 1995.

Climate change would be likely to have these four major consequences, all with potentially significant positive or negative feedbacks: changes in net primary production and allocation patterns of carbon and nutrients; carbon and nutrient mineralization rates; distribution, species diversity and successional status of plant communities; and emissions of CO₂ and trace gases, especially methane.

Item #d95jun72

"How Physics and Biology Matter in Forest Gap Models," H. Bugmann (Potsdam Inst. Clim. Impact Res., POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Ger.), P. Martin, Clim. Change, 29(3), 251-257, Mar. 1995.

An editorial comment stating that it is a challenge for ecologists to consider what level of physiological and biophysical detail is needed to accurately model climate change impacts. Discusses important features of model validity, and elaborates three criteria to use in evaluating the level of detail to be included in ecological models: parsimony, complexity, and computational expense.

Item #d95jun73

"Shifting Dominance Within a Montane Vegetation Community: Results of a Climate-Warming Experiment," J. Harte (Energy & Resour. Group, Univ. Calif., Berkeley CA 94720), R. Shaw, Science, 267(5199), 876-880, Feb. 10, 1995.

Experiments in Rocky Mountain study plots with sagebrush and cinquefoil suggest that doubled CO₂ could change the dominant vegetation of a widespread meadow habitat.

Item #d95jun74

"Climate-Related, Long-Term Faunal Changes in a California Rocky Intertidal Community," J.P. Barry (Monterey Bay Aquarium Res. Inst., 160 Central Ave., Pacific Grove CA 93950), C.H. Baxter et al., ibid., 267(5198), 672-675, Feb. 3, 1995.

During the past 60 years, annual mean shoreline ocean temperatures increased by 0.75° C, and southern invertebrate species became more dominant at the expense of northern species. No trend was seen for cosmopolitan species.

Item #d95jun75

"Phenotypic Plasticity of the Phenology of Seven European Tree Species in Relation to Climatic Warming," K. Kramer (Inst. For. & Nat. Res., IBN-DLO, POB 23, 6700 AA Wageningen, Neth.), Plant, Cell & Environ., 18(2), 93-104, Feb. 1995.

Observations of seven species, relocated over a large latitudinal range in Europe, showed that trees possess considerable plasticity and are able to respond phenotypically to a major change in their local climate. The lowest temperatures around the time of leaf unfolding may represent thresholds below which a species cannot survive. These thresholds may be a particularly sensitive means to evaluate the effect climate warming on the geographic distribution of trees.

Item #d95jun76

"Climate of the 21st Century," L. Bengtsson (M. Planck Inst. Meteor., D-2000 Hamburg 13, Ger.), Agric. & For. Meteor., 72(1-2), 3-29, Dec. 1994.

Estimates possible changes in vegetation due to climate change with a biome model, and predicts a small north-eastward movement of the vegetation zones over Europe and North America.

Item #d95jun77

"Ecological Implications of Projected Climate Change Scenarios in Forest Ecosystems of Central North America," E.A. Jones (Sch. For., Michigan Technol. Univ., Houghton MI 49931), D.D. Reed, P.V. Desanker, ibid., 31-46.

Projects climate change scenarios for selected weather stations using a stochastic daily weather simulation model. Even the mildest climate change scenario indicates that significant changes could occur in the composition and productivity of forests. Climatically induced regional decline episodes for a number of important commercial species are possible.

Item #d95jun78

"Modelling Climate-Induced Extinction in the Temperate Zone," T.P. Rooney (Dept. Biol., Indiana Univ., Indiana PA 15705), Environ. Conserv., 21(3), 257-259, Autumn 1994.

Proposes a simple model, based on the geographical distribution and dispersal abilities of given species, to predict the effects of global warming on their future distributions. The model does not replace single-species studies. However, in the absence of such studies, it can be used to create a qualitative prediction of the effect of climate change on a particular organism, as long as that organism's distribution is determined by existing temperature regimes.

Item #d95jun79

"Climate Change Impact on Distribution and Abundance of Wildlife Species: An Analytical Approach Using GIS," R. Aspinall (GIS & Remote Sensing Unit, Macaulay Land Use Res. Inst., Aberdeen AB9 2QJ, UK), K. Matthews, Environ. Pollut., 86(2), 217-223, 1994.

Describes a procedure, using examples from Scotland, that generates hypotheses defining ecological relationships between species distribution and climatic factors. These relationships are then used to model the distribution of the species directly from climate and to predict impacts of climate change. The procedure is implemented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.

Item #d95jun80

"Sensitivity of the Terrestrial Biosphere to Climatic Changes: Impact on the Carbon Cycle," P. Friedlingstein (Dept. Oceanog., Free Univ. Brussels, CP208, Bld du Triomphe, 1050 Brussels, Belg.), J.-F. Müller, G.P. Brasseur, ibid., 83, 143-147, 1994.

Developed a 5° x 5° longitude-latitude resolution model of the biosphere in which global distributions of major biospheric variables are determined from climatic variables. Comparison with results from present-day climate simulations shows the high sensitivity of the geographical distribution of vegetation types, carbon content and biospheric trace gases emissions to climatic changes.

Item #d95jun81

"Climatic Sensitivity of Temperate Forests," J.L. Innes (Swiss Fed. Inst. For., Snow & Landscape Res., CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switz.), ibid., 237-243.

A review of information on the impact on forests of long-term climate change and short-term climatic events.

Item #d95jun82

"A Coupled Carbon-Water-Energy-Vegetation Model to Assess Responses of Temperate Forest Ecosystems to Changes in Climate and Atmospheric CO₂. Part I. Model Concept," N.T. Nikolov (Rocky Mtn. For. & Range Exp. Sta., 240 W. Prospect, Fort Collins CO 80526), D.G. Fox, ibid., 251-262.

Presents a new model which attempts to overcome the main limitations of existing models by implementing a modern view of ecological hierarchy and a robust approach for scaling ecological processes in space and time.

Item #d95jun83

"Climate Change and Natural Vegetation in China," W. Futang (Chinese Acad. Meteor. Sci., Beijing 100081, China), Z. Zongci, ACTA Meteor. Sinica, 8(1), 1-8, 1994.

Combines a simple, global, social-economic-climate-impact model with seven GCMs, to predict an annual mean temperature increase of about 1.4° C and annual total precipitation increase of about 4% by 2050. A vegetation-climate model developed for Chinese vegetation, combined with the GCMs, predicts a great change in natural vegetation by 2050. Also assesses the possible influence of climate change on agriculture.

Item #d95jun84

"Interactive Effects of Ambient Ozone and Climate Measured on Growth of Mature Forest Trees," S.B. McLaughlin (Environ. Sci. Div., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., Oak Ridge TN 37831), D.J. Downing, Nature, 474(6519), 252-254, Mar. 16, 1995.

Reports a five-year study of serial changes in stem circumference of 28 mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees, that has defined a rough ozone response threshold and quantified short- and longer-term components of growth responses to varying ozone and climate variables. Episodic alterations of stem growth are directly related to ozone exposure combined with low soil moisture and high air temperature. Future ozone effects on forests are likely to be influenced by climate change and by projected increases in regional ozone pollution in industrialized countries.

Item #d95jun85

"Climatic Warming and the Decline of Zooplankton in the California Current," D. Roemmich (Marine Life Group, Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), J. McGowan, Science, 267(5202), 1324-1326, Mar. 3, 1995.

Since 1951, the biomass of macrozooplankton in waters off southern California has decreased by 80%. The surface layer of water has warmed over the same period, by more than 1.5øC in some places, causing increased stratification and less upwelling of inorganic nutrients for new biological production. The cause of the warming is unclear, but the findings show that if the global temperature rises 1-2øC in the next 40 years and if stratification increases globally, the biological consequences could be devastating.

Item #d95jun86

"Simulated Climate Change: Are Passive Greenhouses a Valid Microcosm for Testing the Biological Effects of Environmental Perturbations?" A.W. Kennedy (Marine Lab., CSIRO, POB 20, North Beach, Perth WA 6020, Australia), Global Change Biology, 1(1), 29-42, Feb. 1995.

Challenges the assumption of many studies that "passive" greenhouses (those not requiring artificial power input to create treatment conditions) provide a sufficiently controlled micro-environment for climate change research. Greenhouses modify temperature, moisture, light, gas composition, snow cover, and wind speed in a complex and interactive manner. However, the relationship between modification and forecast conditions of climate change is poor, and interpretation of biological responses and extrapolation to predictive models is unreliable. Suggests amendments to the methodology used in greenhouse experiments to overcome criticisms of artifact and lack of rigor.

Item #d95jun87

"Global Climate Change: Modelling the Potential Responses of Agro-Ecosystems with Special Reference to Crop Protection," J. Goudriaan (Dept. Theoretical Production Ecol., Wageningen Agric. Univ., POB 430, 6700 AA Wageningen, Neth.), J.C. Zadoks, Environ. Pollut., 88(2), 215-224, 1995.

Although climate change can affect potential yields, little is known about its ability to modify the effects of pests, diseases, and weeds. If climate change causes a gradual shift of agricultural regions, crops and associated pests, diseases and weeds will migrate together, though perhaps at different rates. Increases in atmospheric CO2 and UV radiation are not likely to have large effects. Makes cautionary remarks to avoid jumping to conclusions.

Item #d95jun88

"Putting Declining Amphibian Populations in Perspective: Natural Fluctuations and Human Impacts," J.H.K. Pechmann (Savannah River Ecol. Lab., Univ. Georgia, P.O. Drawer E., Aiken SC 29802), H.M. Wilbur, Herpetologica, 50, 65-84, 1994.

Provides theoretical, empirical and philosophical perspective on whether to interpret declines and disappearances of amphibian populations as natural or anthropogenic events, concluding that the evidence is equivocal. Concern about the status of amphibian populations is clearly warranted, but formulation of appropriate null hypotheses and further study are still needed.

Item #d95jun89

See titles in the special issue of Climatic Change, 28(1-2), Oct. 1994, that are listed in PROF. PUBS./ASSESSING IMPACTS ON NATURAL RESOURCES, Jan. 1995 Digest.

Specialized Papers

Item #d95jun90

"Climatic Severity and the Response to Temperature Elevation of Arctic Aphids," A.T. Strathdee (Ctr. Arctic Biol., Univ. Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK), J.S. Bale et al., Global Change Biol., 1(1), 23-28, Feb. 1995.

Item #d95jun91

"Computations on the Influence of Changing Climate on the Soil Moisture and Productivity in Scots Pine Stands in Southern and Northern Finland," S. Kellomäki (Faculty For., Univ. Joensuu, POB 111, SF-80101 Joensuu, Finland), Clim. Change, 29(1), 35-51, Jan. 1995.

Item #d95jun92

"Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Productivity of Beech Stand in Slovenia Using Simulation Methods," L. Kajfez-Bogataj (Agron. Dept., Univ. Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 61000 Ljubljana, Slovenia), A. Hocevar, Agric. & For. Meteor., 72(1-2), 47-56, Dec. 1994.

Item #d95jun93

"The Impact of Climate Change on the Soil/Moisture Regime of Scottish Mineral Soils," A.M. MacDonald (Macaulay Land Use Res. Inst., Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB9 2QJ, UK), K.B. Matthews et al., Environ. Pollut., 83, 245-250, 1994.