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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Item #d95jun107

"Greenland Ice Sheet over the Next 5000 Years," M.-F. Loutre (Inst. Astron. & Géophys. G. Lemaître, Univ. Catholique, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belg.), Geophys. Res. Lett., 22(7), 783-786, Apr. 1, 1995.

Uses a two-dimensional climate model to test long-term change due to use of fossil fuels. It reproduces well the main features of present-day climate, and the low frequency part of climatic variations for the last glacial-interglacial cycle. The model predicts that the Greenland ice sheet will not change significantly if pre-industrial CO₂ concentration is assumed to remain constant. However, the ice sheet will rapidly collapse with a CO₂ concentration of 710 ppmv kept constant over the next 5000 years, and will also disappear if the CO₂ value returns to the present-day value after 5000 years.

Item #d95jun108

"Forecasts of Future Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations for a Simple Global Carbon-Cycle Model," K. Kamiuto (Dept. Production Sys. Eng., Oita Univ., Dannoharu 700, Oita 870-11, Japan), Energy, 19(10), 1099-1011, Oct. 1994.

Compares the present with three scenarios (IS92a, IS92c and IS92e) prepared by IPCC Work Group I, and compared forecasts from the IPCC with the authors' global carbon cycle model. Predicted that CO₂ concentrations up to 2020 will depend very weakly on the adopted emission scenarios and that the CO₂ concentration in 2020 will be about 440 ppmv.

Item #d95jun109

"Greenhouse Gas and Sulfate Aerosol Experiments Using a Simple Global-Energy-Balance Model," R.C. Balling Jr. (Off. Climatol., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), Phys. Geog., 15(4), 299-309, July-Aug. 1994.

The one-dimensional model indicates that a CO₂ doubling generates a global warming of 1.57° C. Increasing the level of sulfate aerosols generates a cooling of 0.32° C. When the effects are combined, the model generates a warming of 0.30° C, with the greatest effect in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Results are broadly consistent with simulations by three-dimensional general circulation models and with observed trends.

Item #d95jun110

"Analysis and Prediction of Global Climate Temperature Change Based on Multiforced Observational Statistics," C.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor. & Geophys., J.W. Goethe Univ., Praunheimer Landstr. 70, D-60488 Frankfurt, Ger.), Environ. Pollut., 83, 149-154, 1994.

Uses several climate model projections to simulate climate response to increasing greenhouse gases. The model estimates a mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time. Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario, this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise between 1985 and 2100.

Item #d95jun111

"Comparison of Longterm Greenhouse Projections with the Geologic Record," T.J. Crowley (Dept. Oceanog., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), K.-Y. Kim, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22(8), 933-936, Apr. 15, 1995.

Used a 1D energy balance model and an upwelling-diffusion ocean model to explore the temperature response to extreme cases of unrestricted and severely restricted greenhouse gas increases, and compared the results against revised estimates of global temperature change over the last 100 million years. Suggests that regardless of emission scenario or system sensitivity, future greenhouse warming will be large, even on a geologic scale.

Item #d95jun112

"Simple Global Carbon Model: The Atmosphere-Terrestrial Biosphere-Ocean Interaction," O-Y. Kwon (Ctr. Global & Regional Environ. Res., Univ. Iowa, Iowa City IA 52242), J.L. Schnoor, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(3), 295-305, Sep. 1994. Developed a model that includes fertilization and temperature effects, and calculated time-variable oceanic carbon uptake, for various scenarios. If CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue at the present rate, doubling may occur in 2060. Resulting warming would be responsible for 40 Gt carbon accumulation in land biota and 7 Gt in oceans, 88 Gt depletion from soil, and a 19 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2.

Item #d95jun113

"Modeling the Global Carbon Cycle: Nitrogen Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere and the 'Missing' CO2 Link," R.J.M. Hudson (Inst. Marine Sci., Univ. California, Santa Cruz CA 95064), S.A. Gherini, R.A. Goldstein, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(3), 307-333, Sep. 1994.

Describes and applies GLOCO, a global carbon cycle model with relatively detailed treatment of oceanic and terrestrial processes and anthropogenic activities. Confirms previous suggestions that because temperate and boreal forests are nitrogen limited, CO2 fertilization is less than predicted by short-term CO2 response factors. Fertilization by anthropogenic nitrogen emissions probably constitutes a significant portion of the "missing" CO2 sink.

Item #d95jun114

"Climate Change in China," Z. Zhao (Clim. Res. Ctr., Chin. Acad. Meteor. Sci., Baishiqiaolu No. 46, 100081 Beijing, China), World Resour. Rev., 6(1), 125-147, Mar. 1994.

A review for the last 100 years indicates a warming of 0.5-0.7øC, with a substantial effect from urbanization. Calculations by a simple model of global social-economic development and climatic impact (referenced to several GCMs) project from 1990 to 2100 a temperature increase of 3.0øC and a precipitation increase of 9%, resulting from human activity.

Item #d95jun115

"Recent and Future Climate Change in East Asia," M. Hulme (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Z.-C. Zhao, T. Jiang, Intl. J. Climatol., 14(6), 637-658, July 1994.

Examines climate change over the past 100 years (from instrument records) and projects it over the next 100 years (using results from climate model experiments). The region has undoubtedly warmed over the last century; the substantial role of urbanization cannot account for all the temperature change. Illustrates a flexible composite-model approach to regional climate change scenario construction which can explicitly incorporate the effects of model uncertainty. The scenario presented suggests that by 2050, mean conditions are expected to be warmer than the extremely warm seasonal anomalies of the most recent decade.

Item #d95jun116

"Modeling the Climate Effect of Unrestricted Greenhouse Emissions over the next 10,000 Years," K.-Y. Kim (Dept. Meteor., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), T.J. Crowley, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(8), 681-684, Apr. 15, 1994. Uses an energy-balance model coupled to an upwelling-diffusion deep-ocean model to the estimate the effect of utilizing a substantial fraction of the World's fossil fuel reservoir. Greenhouse warming would peak in the period 2200-2400 at 4-13øC greater than present, dominating the Milankovitch effects occurring over the same interval.