February 28, 2007
GCRIO Program Overview
Our extensive collection of documents.
Archives of the
Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995
Sheet over the Next 5000 Years," M.-F. Loutre (Inst. Astron. & Géophys.
G. Lemaître, Univ. Catholique, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belg.), Geophys. Res.
Lett., 22(7), 783-786, Apr. 1, 1995.
Uses a two-dimensional climate model to test long-term change due to use of
fossil fuels. It reproduces well the main features of present-day climate, and
the low frequency part of climatic variations for the last glacial-interglacial
cycle. The model predicts that the Greenland ice sheet will not change
significantly if pre-industrial CO2 concentration is assumed to
remain constant. However, the ice sheet will rapidly collapse with a CO2
concentration of 710 ppmv kept constant over the next 5000 years, and will also
disappear if the CO2 value returns to the present-day value after
Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations for a Simple Global
Carbon-Cycle Model," K. Kamiuto (Dept. Production Sys. Eng., Oita Univ.,
Dannoharu 700, Oita 870-11, Japan), Energy, 19(10), 1099-1011,
Compares the present with three scenarios (IS92a, IS92c and IS92e) prepared
by IPCC Work Group I, and compared forecasts from the IPCC with the authors'
global carbon cycle model. Predicted that CO2 concentrations up to
2020 will depend very weakly on the adopted emission scenarios and that the CO2
concentration in 2020 will be about 440 ppmv.
and Sulfate Aerosol Experiments Using a Simple Global-Energy-Balance Model,"
R.C. Balling Jr. (Off. Climatol., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), Phys.
Geog., 15(4), 299-309, July-Aug. 1994.
The one-dimensional model indicates that a CO2 doubling
generates a global warming of 1.57° C. Increasing the level of sulfate
aerosols generates a cooling of 0.32° C. When the effects are combined, the
model generates a warming of 0.30° C, with the greatest effect in the
mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Results are broadly consistent
with simulations by three-dimensional general circulation models and with
Prediction of Global Climate Temperature Change Based on Multiforced
Observational Statistics," C.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor. &
Geophys., J.W. Goethe Univ., Praunheimer Landstr. 70, D-60488 Frankfurt, Ger.),
Environ. Pollut., 83, 149-154, 1994.
Uses several climate model projections to simulate climate response to
increasing greenhouse gases. The model estimates a mean global temperature rise
of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time. Following the IPCC business-as-usual
scenario, this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise between 1985
Longterm Greenhouse Projections with the Geologic Record," T.J. Crowley
(Dept. Oceanog., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), K.-Y. Kim, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 22(8), 933-936, Apr. 15, 1995.
Used a 1D energy balance model and an upwelling-diffusion ocean model to
explore the temperature response to extreme cases of unrestricted and severely
restricted greenhouse gas increases, and compared the results against revised
estimates of global temperature change over the last 100 million years. Suggests
that regardless of emission scenario or system sensitivity, future greenhouse
warming will be large, even on a geologic scale.
Carbon Model: The Atmosphere-Terrestrial Biosphere-Ocean Interaction," O-Y.
Kwon (Ctr. Global & Regional Environ. Res., Univ. Iowa, Iowa City IA 52242),
J.L. Schnoor, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(3), 295-305, Sep. 1994.
Developed a model that includes fertilization and temperature effects, and
calculated time-variable oceanic carbon uptake, for various scenarios. If CO2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue at the present rate, doubling may
occur in 2060. Resulting warming would be responsible for 40 Gt carbon
accumulation in land biota and 7 Gt in oceans, 88 Gt depletion from soil, and a
19 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2.
Global Carbon Cycle: Nitrogen Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere and the
'Missing' CO2 Link," R.J.M. Hudson (Inst. Marine Sci., Univ. California,
Santa Cruz CA 95064), S.A. Gherini, R.A. Goldstein, Global Biogeochem.
Cycles, 8(3), 307-333, Sep. 1994.
Describes and applies GLOCO, a global carbon cycle model with relatively
detailed treatment of oceanic and terrestrial processes and anthropogenic
activities. Confirms previous suggestions that because temperate and boreal
forests are nitrogen limited, CO2 fertilization is less than predicted by
short-term CO2 response factors. Fertilization by anthropogenic nitrogen
emissions probably constitutes a significant portion of the "missing"
"Climate Change in
China," Z. Zhao (Clim. Res. Ctr., Chin. Acad. Meteor. Sci., Baishiqiaolu
No. 46, 100081 Beijing, China), World Resour. Rev., 6(1), 125-147, Mar.
A review for the last 100 years indicates a warming of 0.5-0.7øC,
with a substantial effect from urbanization. Calculations by a simple model of
global social-economic development and climatic impact (referenced to several
GCMs) project from 1990 to 2100 a temperature increase of 3.0øC and a
precipitation increase of 9%, resulting from human activity.
"Recent and Future
Climate Change in East Asia," M. Hulme (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. E. Anglia,
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Z.-C. Zhao, T. Jiang, Intl. J. Climatol., 14(6),
637-658, July 1994.
Examines climate change over the past 100 years (from instrument records)
and projects it over the next 100 years (using results from climate model
experiments). The region has undoubtedly warmed over the last century; the
substantial role of urbanization cannot account for all the temperature change.
Illustrates a flexible composite-model approach to regional climate change
scenario construction which can explicitly incorporate the effects of model
uncertainty. The scenario presented suggests that by 2050, mean conditions are
expected to be warmer than the extremely warm seasonal anomalies of the most
Climate Effect of Unrestricted Greenhouse Emissions over the next 10,000 Years,"
K.-Y. Kim (Dept. Meteor., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), T.J.
Crowley, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(8), 681-684, Apr. 15, 1994. Uses an
energy-balance model coupled to an upwelling-diffusion deep-ocean model to the
estimate the effect of utilizing a substantial fraction of the World's fossil
fuel reservoir. Greenhouse warming would peak in the period 2200-2400 at 4-13øC
greater than present, dominating the Milankovitch effects occurring over the
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Index of Abbreviations