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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: EARTH SYSTEM PROPERTIES

Item #d95jun38

"Responses of Climate and Cyclones to Reductions in Arctic Winter Sea Ice," R.J. Murray (Sch. Earth Sci., Univ. Melbourne, Parkville, 3052 Victoria, Australia), I. Simmonds, J. Geophys. Res., 100(C3), 4791-4806, Mar. 15, 1995.

A simulation of perpetual January, to study changes induced by reductions in sea ice, indicated a significant decrease in the speeds and intensities of cyclonic systems north of 45oN, but little overall change in areal densities or arrangement of the major storm tracks.

Item #d95jun39

"Regional Analysis of Temperature Extremes: Spatial Analog for Climate Change?" B.G. Brown (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), R.W. Katz, J. Clim., 8(1), 108-119, Jan. 1995.

Statistical analysis suggests that the Type I extreme value distribution is a satisfactory model for extreme high temperatures; Type III is often a better model for extreme low temperatures. If a temporal climate change were analogous to a spatial relocation, then it would be possible to anticipate how the frequency of extreme temperature events might change.

Item #d95jun40

"Impact of the Greenhouse Effect on Sea-Ice Characteristics and Snow Accumulation in the Polar Regions," B.G. Hunt (Div. Atmos. Res., CSIRO, Pvt.. Bag 1, Mordialloc 3195 Vic., Australia), H.B. Gordon, H.L. Davies, Intl. J. Climatol., 15(1), 3-23, Jan. 1995.

Global climatic model simulations show substantial reductions occurring in sea-ice thickness, and to a lesser extent in sea-ice area, under doubled CO₂. The major impact would be in summer. Water mass accumulation over the great ice-sheets agreed moderately well with limited observations for control conditions.

Item #d95jun41

"Extending Cluster Analysis—Synoptic Meteorology Links to Characterize Chemical Climates at Six Northwest European Monitoring Stations," S.R. Dorling (Sch. Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ, UK), T.D. Davies, Atmos. Environ., 29(2), 145-167, Jan. 1995.

The success of this approach, when applied to U.K. conditions, suggests that a basis for estimating future levels of acidic deposition there may lie in predictions of atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from natural or anthropogenic climate change.

Item #d95jun42

"The Sensitivity of the Terrestrial Biosphere to Climatic Change: A Simulation of the Middle Holocene," J.A. Foley (Inst. Environ. Stud., Univ. Wisconsin, Madison WI 53706), Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(4), 505-525, Dec. 1994.

Applies a process-based model, DEMETER, to current climate and to a simulated mid-Holocene climate. Mid-Holocene global net primary productivity is about 3% greater than present, due largely to the increase of boreal forest and tropical grasslands relative to tundra and desert, and global vegetation carbon is higher by about 4%. Despite regional changes in productivity and carbon storage, the simulated total carbon storage potential of the terrestrial biosphere does not change significantly between the two simulations.

Item #d95jun43

"Variability in High Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States," D. Changnon (Dept. Geog., Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb IL 60115), Phys. Geog., 14(6), 599-611, Nov.-Dec. 1993.

Analysis of 41 years of data shows that great variability already exists in today's climate characteristics, and that any potential shift in average temperature will cause even greater changes in the frequency and duration of extreme high temperature.

Item #d95jun44

"Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones," J. Lighthill (Dept. Mathematics, Univ. College, Gower St., London WC1E 6BT, UK), G. Holland et al., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(11), 2147-2157, Nov. 1994.

Used two methodologies to assesss the consequences of doubled CO2 over the next 60-70 years on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Neither method showed any significant changes; and although minor, indirect effects cannot be excluded, they would be swamped by large natural variability.

Item #d95jun45

"Impact of Increased CO2 on Simulated ENSO-Like Phenomena," T.R. Knutson (GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542), S. Manabe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(21), 2295-2298, Oct. 15, 1994.

Multi-century experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM with 4xCO2 show that, despite an order 5K warming of the tropical Pacific and an order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor, ENSO-like SST fluctuations do not intensify, but rather decrease slightly.

Item #d95jun46

"Iceberg Severity off Eastern North America: Its Relationship to Sea Ice Variability and Climate Change," J.R. Marko (Arctic Sciences Ltd., 1986 Mills Rd., R.R. 2, Sidney BC V8L 3S1, Can.), D.B. Fissel et al., J. Clim., 7(9), 1335-1351, Sep. 1994.

Develops an iceberg dissipation model that explains the major features of interannual and seasonal iceberg number variations in terms of sea ice extent parameters. If data for the last four decades represent a regional response to global warming, the response has been toward lower temperatures and higher ice extents, in contrast to the warming and ice retreat that have been predicted by most models.

Item #d95jun47

"Storm Tracks in a High-Resolution GCM with Doubled Carbon Dioxide," N.M.J. Hall (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Reading, 2 Early Gate, Whiteknights, Reading, Berkshire RG6 2AU, UK), B.J. Hoskins et al., Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 120(519), 1209-1230, July 1994 (Part B).

On synoptic time scales, indicators of storm-track activity such as eddy kinetic energy are shifted northwards and intensified downstream by doubled CO2, especially in the Atlantic. Total zonal-mean poleward energy transport is only slightly different, but doubled CO2 changes the transient eddy contribution.