February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 9, SEPTEMBER 1995
"Indication of Change in Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric
Mercury Concentrations," F. Slemr (IfU, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Ger.), W. Junkermann et al., Geophys. Res. Lett.,
22(16), 2143-2146, Aug. 15, 1995.
Measurements at a German mountaintop and on an Atlantic Ocean cruise
indicate a decrease in global total gaseous mercury of about 22% between 1990
and 1994. The decrease is most likely the result of reduction in coal
consumption and control measures taken in the OECD countries.
"Selecting a Model for Detecting the Presence of a Trend," W.A.
Woodward (Dept. Statistical Sci., Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas TX 75275),
H.L. Gray, J. Clim., 8(8), 1929-1937, Aug. 1995.
Addresses whether the upward trend in the global temperature anomaly series
will continue, and whether an observed trend in a time series realization is a
random or deterministic trend. Considers an autoregressive integrated moving
average model (ARIMA) for a random trend, and a "deterministic forcing
function + autoregressive noise" model for a deterministic trend, and
introduces a bootstrap-based classification procedure. Simulations show that the
procedure is useful in distinguishing between realizations from these two
"Air-Temperature Variations and ENSO Effects in Indonesia, the
Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO Patterns and Changes from 1866-1993,"
J.R.E. Harger (UNESCO/ROSTSEA, Jln. M.H. Thamrin 14, Jakarta, Indonesia), Atmos.
Environ., 29(16), 1919-1942, Aug. 1995.
A consistent structure underlies ENSO events for the last 125 years, but the
system is changing in character with time in association with an overall
atmospheric temperature increase that involves increased intra-annual
temperature fluctuations. An atmospheric temperature rise due to the greenhouse
effect may be coupled to an increasingly wider temperature swing in west and
central Java associated with the warm pool influence but anchored by the ocean
"Is the Recently Reported 65- to 70-Year Surface-Temperature
Oscillation the Result of Climatic Noise?" M.E. Schlesinger (Dept. Atmos.
Sci., Univ. Illinois, Urbana IL 61801), N. Ramankutty, J. Geophys. Res.,
100(D7), 13,767-13,774, July 20, 1995.
Examines random radiative forcing of the climate system (climatic noise) as
a possible cause for the oscillation over the North Atlantic Ocean and its
bordering continental regions. Concludes that this hypothesis can be rejected at
a very high level of statistical confidence.
"Past and Present Precipitations Related to Climate ChangesMethodologies
and Perspectives," M. Desbois (CNRS, Ecole Polytech., 91128 Palaiseau,
France), F. Désalmand, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76(7),
1173-1178, July 1995.
Summarizes the NATO workshop Global Precipitations and Climate Change
(L'Agelonde, France, Sep.-Oct. 1993), that reviewed the current understanding of
global precipitation distribution on various timescales, as related to climate
evolution. Includes recommendations for future studies.
"Hypertemporal Analysis of Remotely Sensed Sea-Ice Data for Climate
Change Studies," J.M. Piwowar (Dept. Geog., Univ. Waterloo, Waterloo ON N2L
3G1, Can.), E.F. LeDrew, Prog. Phys. Geog., 19(2), 216-242, June
Discusses development of analytical techniques to facilitate the study of
Arctic ice conditions as proxy indicators of general climatic changes.
Identifies direct hypertemporal classification, principal components analysis
and spatial time-series analysis as techniques that support large area
monitoring and highlight the space-time relationships in data.
"Recent Variations in Mean Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature
Range in the Antarctic," P.D. Jones (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. E. Anglia,
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), J. Geophys. Res., 22(11), 1345-1348, June
Monthly mean surface temperature data from nearly 20 stations show an
increase of 0.57° C from 1957 to 1994. All of the warming occurred before
the early 1970s.
Correspondence with extensive reply on "Assessment of Precision in
Temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Units," Clim. Change, 30(1),
97-117, May 1995.
"Long-Term Trends of Precipitation and Runoff in Louisiana, USA,"
B.D. Keim (Dept. Geog., Univ. New Hampshire, Durham NH 03824), G.E. Faiers et
al., Intl. J. Climatol., 15(5), 531-541, May 1995.
Identifies the impacts of long-term trends on surface water resources. If
general circulation model predictions for increasing precipitation in the
southeastern U.S. are correct, surface water is likely to increase at a
disproportionately higher rate, which should be a concern to water resource
"Comparison of Tropospheric Temperature Derived from the Microwave
Sounding Unit and the National Meteorological Center [NMC] Analysis," A.N.
Basist (Clim. Anal. Ctr., NMC/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Bldg., Rm. 605, 5200 Auth
Rd., Camp Springs MD 20746), C.F. Ropelewski, N.C. Grody, J. Clim., 8(4),
668-681, Apr. 1995.
Suggests that NMC reanalysis of its 35 years of global assimilation system
data, using a fixed assimilation model, will produce a stable data set of
tropospheric temperatures that can be used in conjunction with satellite data.
"Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global
Temperature Dataset," J.R. Christy (Earth Sys. Sci. Lab., Univ. Alabama,
Huntsville AL 35899), R.W. Spencer, R.T. McNider, ibid., 888-896.
Adjusts the temperature data to reduce daily noise by 50% and 30-day average
noise by 35%. After adjustment, the decadal trend of lower tropospheric global
temperature from 1979 through 1994 is -0.058° C, or about 0.03° C per
decade cooler than previously calculated.
"Climate Trends in the South-West Pacific," M.J. Salinger (Natl.
Inst. Water & Atmos. Res., POB 28 841, Auckland, N.Z.), R.E. Basher et al.,
Intl. J. Climatol., 15(3), 285-302, Mar. 1995.
Describes temperature and precipitation trends for newly homogenized
historical climate data sets. Examines geographical characteristics and
discusses the relationship to ENSO.
"Assessing the Ability of the Köppen System to Delineate the
General World Pattern of Climates," G.N. Triantafyllou (Dept. Geosci.,
Univ. Wisconsin, Milwaukee WI 53201), A.A. Tsonis, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
21(25), 2809-2812, Dec. 15, 1994.
Tests whether or not variability in climate types results from the positive
temperature trend of the last 140 years. The Köppen climate classification
system appears to be rather insensitive to the observed global warming.
Three items in Environ. Pollut., 83, 1994:
"Global Climate Change in the Instrumental Period," M. Hulme
(School Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), P.D. Jones, 23-36,
1994. Reviews knowledge about global climate change, examines time series of
global mean temperature and precipitation, and compares two independent 30-year
climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Explains why detailed diagnostic climate
information is a necessary prerequisite for the detection of global-scale
warming. Also reviews some explanations of the observed changes in global mean
"Time Series Analyses of Global Change Data," L.J. Lane (Watershed
Res. Ctr., ARS, USDA, 2000 E. Allen Rd., Tucson AZ 85719), M.H. Nichols, H.B.
Osborn, 63-68. Examines whether statistical analyses of historical time series
data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations on climate
change from anthropogenic causes. Relates global temperature data for 1901-1987
to atmospheric CO2 concentration, and to the Wolf sunspot number. The strengths
of the statistical relationships among time, temperature, atmospheric CO2 and
sunspots are interpreted as supporting or refuting the basic hypothesis.
Concludes that additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic and
natural components when assessing warming trends.
"Long-Term Changes in Elemental Deposition at the Earth's Surface,"
P. Brimblecombe (Sch. Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK),
81-85. Uses estimates of the balance of natural and anthropogenic sources of a
range of elements to examine the probable variation in deposition at the Earth's
surface. Focuses on elements regarded as toxic, whose concentrations seem likely
to continue increasing in industrial areas.
"Historical ENSO Teleconnections in the Eastern Hemisphere," P.
Whetton (CSIRO, P.B. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia), I. Rutherfurd, Clim.
Change, 28(5), 221-253, Nov. 1994.
Examines the pattern of ENSO teleconnections over the last 500 years, noting
any changes that may be relevant in estimating ENSO's future behavior, such as
response to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
"Glacier Trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s," D.P. Bedford
(CIRES, Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), R.G. Barry, Phys. Geog., 15(5),
414-424, Sep.-Oct. 1994.
Analyzes newly available Caucasus glacier records from the 1960s to 1980s
for the percentage that are retreating, advancing and stationary as a five-year
moving average. The absence of a clear trend towards glacier advance in the Alps
during the same period suggests a phase difference in the climates of the Alps
and the Caucasus.
"Variations of Air Temperature and Cloudiness over the Former USSR
Territory in 1967-1990," N.A. Efimova (State Hydrol. Inst., Russia), L.A.
Strokina et al., Russian Meteor. & Hydrol., No. 6, 37-40, 1994.
Increases in air temperature over the period were 1.6° C in daytime and
1.8° C at night. Daytime and nighttime cloudiness also increased.
"Climatic Warming in North America: Analysis of Borehole
Temperatures," D. Deming, Science, 268(5217), 1576-1577,
June 16, 1995.
Gives a synopsis of evidence of climate change based on examination of the
profile of temperature versus depth in holes bored in the Earth. The sum of
evidence from this technique, combined with the conventional instrumental record
of surface air temperatures, is consistent with a major climatic warming over
the North American continent since the middle of the 19th century. However, the
magnitude of the warming is within the range of natural variability, and a cause
and effect relationship to anthropogenic activities cannot be demonstrated
unambiguously at this time.
"Tree Ring Width and Density Evidence of Climatic and Potential
Forest Change in Alaska," G.C. Jacoby (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observ., Rte.
9W, Palisades NY 10964), R.D. D'Arrigo, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 9(2),
227-234, June 1995.
Analysis of core samples from trees shows that the climatic warming observed
over much of Alaska during the past century is not producing ever-increasing
tree growth. Instead, warmer temperatures may be slowing tree growth by
promoting moisture loss and attacks by insects and diseases. (See summary and
discussion in Science, p. 1595, Mar. 17, 1995.)
"The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precession," D.J. Thomson
(AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill NJ 07974), Science, 268(5207),
59-67, Apr. 7, 1995.
(See Research News, May 1995 Digest.) Statistically analyzes the
structure of the annual or seasonal cycle in temperature time series since the
year 1659, using complex demodulation. The results have several implications for
interpretation of the Earth's temperature record, including that solar
variability cannot be the sole cause of the temperature increase observed over
the last century. About 1940, the phase patterns of the previous 300 years began
to change; the average change in phase is now coherent with the logarithm of
atmospheric CO2 concentration. Other results suggest that the effects of
increasing greenhouse gases may be worse than previously thought.
"Estimating Global Changes in Precipitation," M. Hulme (Clim.
Res. Unit., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Weather, 50(2),
34-42, Feb. 1995.
Summarizes the problems of establishing a global-mean record of
precipitation spanning the instrumental period, a considerably more difficult
task than estimating surface air temperature. The much larger natural variation
of precipitation in space and time is a major problem, and also makes
interpretation of estimated changes more difficult. Finding signals of
human-induced climate change in the precipitation record will remain an
intractable problem for some years to come.
"Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapour at a Mid-latitude
Northern Hemisphere Site from 1981 to 1994," S.J. Oltmans (CMDL, NOAA, 325
Broadway, Boulder CO 80303), D.J. Hofmann, Nature, 374(6518),
146-149, Mar. 9, 1995.
Measurements show a significant increase in water-vapor concentration in the
lower stratosphere over the period, larger than might be expected from the
stratospheric oxidation of increasing concentrations of atmospheric methane. The
increase may be linked to other climate variations, such as the observed global
temperature rise in recent decades.
"Tropospheric Budget of Reactive Chlorine," T.E. Graedel (AT&T
Bell Labs., Murray Hill NJ 07974), W.C. Keene, Global Biogeochem. Cycles,
9(1), 47-77, Mar. 1995.
Reactive chlorine in the lower atmosphere is important to precipitation
acidity, corrosion, foliar damage, and the chemistry of the marine boundary
layer. A synthesis of available information shows that the tropospheric reactive
chlorine burden appears to be increasing by several percent per year. Coal
combustion is one source, although there are substantial natural sources.
Concentrations are anticipated to increase in the next several decades,
particularly near urban areas in the rapidly developing countries.
"Long-Term Changes of the Surface Air Temperature in Relation to
Solar Inertial Motion," I. Charvátová (Geophys. Inst. AS CR,
Bocní II, 141 31 Praha 4 Sporilov, Czech Rep.), J. Strestír,
Clim. Change, 29(3), 333-352, Mar. 1995.
An exploratory study of the possible influence (on surface air temperature)
of the inertial motion of the sun around the center of mass of the solar system.
Statistical examination of instrumental temperature records suggests a basic
cycle of 180-200 years, which would coincide with the relative warmth observed
during 1760-70 and 1940-50. During the period 1990 to 2040, the sun is in
another period of chaotic motion, which may decrease temperature as much as 0.5° C.
However, following 2040, the Sun will enter a very long period of ordered motion
which occurs every 2160 years; a long-term temperature maximum similar to that
observed during the last such period (80 B.C. to 160 A.D.) could ensue.
"Resampling of Network-Induced Variability in Estimates of
Terrestrial Air Temperature Change," S.M. Robeson (Dept. Geog., Indiana
Univ., Bloomington IN 47405), Clim. Change, 29(2), 213-229, Feb.
Addresses the problem of uneven and changing spatial distributions of air
temperature stations and the changing numbers of stations in relation to
estimates of air temperature change derived from historical observation
networks. Terrestrial average air temperature anomaly estimates are produced
that vary by more than 0.3° C, solely due to network changes.
"Mechanisms of Shrubland Expansion: Land Use, Climate or CO2?"
S. Archer (Dept. Rangeland Ecol. & Mgmt., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta.
TX 77843), D.S. Schimel, E.A. Holland, Clim. Change, 29(1),
91-99, Jan. 1995.
Evaluation of the CO2 enrichment hypotheses shows that there is not a
cause-and-effect relationship between the increase in atmospheric CO2 since the
Industrial Revolution and displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid
and semi-arid ecosystems.
"Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends," N.E. Graham
(Sci. Res. Div., Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), Science,
267(5198), 666-671, Feb. 3, 1995.
Global average tropospheric temperatures have risen during the past century.
The sharp rise since the mid-1970s can be closely reproduced by atmospheric
models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. Although the
observed behavior may be from natural climate variability, there is disquieting
similarity among the model results, observed climate trends in recent decades,
and the early expressions of the climatic response to increased atmospheric CO2
in numerical simulations.
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