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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 9, SEPTEMBER 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSES

Item #d95sep67

"Indication of Change in Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations," F. Slemr (IfU, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Ger.), W. Junkermann et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 22(16), 2143-2146, Aug. 15, 1995.

Measurements at a German mountaintop and on an Atlantic Ocean cruise indicate a decrease in global total gaseous mercury of about 22% between 1990 and 1994. The decrease is most likely the result of reduction in coal consumption and control measures taken in the OECD countries.

Item #d95sep68

"Selecting a Model for Detecting the Presence of a Trend," W.A. Woodward (Dept. Statistical Sci., Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas TX 75275), H.L. Gray, J. Clim., 8(8), 1929-1937, Aug. 1995.

Addresses whether the upward trend in the global temperature anomaly series will continue, and whether an observed trend in a time series realization is a random or deterministic trend. Considers an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) for a random trend, and a "deterministic forcing function + autoregressive noise" model for a deterministic trend, and introduces a bootstrap-based classification procedure. Simulations show that the procedure is useful in distinguishing between realizations from these two models.

Item #d95sep69

"Air-Temperature Variations and ENSO Effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO Patterns and Changes from 1866-1993," J.R.E. Harger (UNESCO/ROSTSEA, Jln. M.H. Thamrin 14, Jakarta, Indonesia), Atmos. Environ., 29(16), 1919-1942, Aug. 1995.

A consistent structure underlies ENSO events for the last 125 years, but the system is changing in character with time in association with an overall atmospheric temperature increase that involves increased intra-annual temperature fluctuations. An atmospheric temperature rise due to the greenhouse effect may be coupled to an increasingly wider temperature swing in west and central Java associated with the warm pool influence but anchored by the ocean sink.

Item #d95sep70

"Is the Recently Reported 65- to 70-Year Surface-Temperature Oscillation the Result of Climatic Noise?" M.E. Schlesinger (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Univ. Illinois, Urbana IL 61801), N. Ramankutty, J. Geophys. Res., 100(D7), 13,767-13,774, July 20, 1995.

Examines random radiative forcing of the climate system (climatic noise) as a possible cause for the oscillation over the North Atlantic Ocean and its bordering continental regions. Concludes that this hypothesis can be rejected at a very high level of statistical confidence.

Item #d95sep71

"Past and Present Precipitations Related to Climate Changes—Methodologies and Perspectives," M. Desbois (CNRS, Ecole Polytech., 91128 Palaiseau, France), F. Désalmand, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76(7), 1173-1178, July 1995.

Summarizes the NATO workshop Global Precipitations and Climate Change (L'Agelonde, France, Sep.-Oct. 1993), that reviewed the current understanding of global precipitation distribution on various timescales, as related to climate evolution. Includes recommendations for future studies.

Item #d95sep72

"Hypertemporal Analysis of Remotely Sensed Sea-Ice Data for Climate Change Studies," J.M. Piwowar (Dept. Geog., Univ. Waterloo, Waterloo ON N2L 3G1, Can.), E.F. LeDrew, Prog. Phys. Geog., 19(2), 216-242, June 1995.

Discusses development of analytical techniques to facilitate the study of Arctic ice conditions as proxy indicators of general climatic changes. Identifies direct hypertemporal classification, principal components analysis and spatial time-series analysis as techniques that support large area monitoring and highlight the space-time relationships in data.

Item #d95sep73

"Recent Variations in Mean Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Antarctic," P.D. Jones (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), J. Geophys. Res., 22(11), 1345-1348, June 1, 1995.

Monthly mean surface temperature data from nearly 20 stations show an increase of 0.57° C from 1957 to 1994. All of the warming occurred before the early 1970s.

Item #d95sep74

Correspondence with extensive reply on "Assessment of Precision in Temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Units," Clim. Change, 30(1), 97-117, May 1995.

Item #d95sep75

"Long-Term Trends of Precipitation and Runoff in Louisiana, USA," B.D. Keim (Dept. Geog., Univ. New Hampshire, Durham NH 03824), G.E. Faiers et al., Intl. J. Climatol., 15(5), 531-541, May 1995.

Identifies the impacts of long-term trends on surface water resources. If general circulation model predictions for increasing precipitation in the southeastern U.S. are correct, surface water is likely to increase at a disproportionately higher rate, which should be a concern to water resource planners.

Item #d95sep76

"Comparison of Tropospheric Temperature Derived from the Microwave Sounding Unit and the National Meteorological Center [NMC] Analysis," A.N. Basist (Clim. Anal. Ctr., NMC/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Bldg., Rm. 605, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs MD 20746), C.F. Ropelewski, N.C. Grody, J. Clim., 8(4), 668-681, Apr. 1995.

Suggests that NMC reanalysis of its 35 years of global assimilation system data, using a fixed assimilation model, will produce a stable data set of tropospheric temperatures that can be used in conjunction with satellite data.

Item #d95sep77

"Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset," J.R. Christy (Earth Sys. Sci. Lab., Univ. Alabama, Huntsville AL 35899), R.W. Spencer, R.T. McNider, ibid., 888-896.

Adjusts the temperature data to reduce daily noise by 50% and 30-day average noise by 35%. After adjustment, the decadal trend of lower tropospheric global temperature from 1979 through 1994 is -0.058° C, or about 0.03° C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Item #d95sep78

"Climate Trends in the South-West Pacific," M.J. Salinger (Natl. Inst. Water & Atmos. Res., POB 28 841, Auckland, N.Z.), R.E. Basher et al., Intl. J. Climatol., 15(3), 285-302, Mar. 1995.

Describes temperature and precipitation trends for newly homogenized historical climate data sets. Examines geographical characteristics and discusses the relationship to ENSO.

Item #d95sep79

"Assessing the Ability of the Köppen System to Delineate the General World Pattern of Climates," G.N. Triantafyllou (Dept. Geosci., Univ. Wisconsin, Milwaukee WI 53201), A.A. Tsonis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(25), 2809-2812, Dec. 15, 1994.

Tests whether or not variability in climate types results from the positive temperature trend of the last 140 years. The Köppen climate classification system appears to be rather insensitive to the observed global warming.

Item #d95sep80

Three items in Environ. Pollut., 83, 1994:

"Global Climate Change in the Instrumental Period," M. Hulme (School Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), P.D. Jones, 23-36, 1994. Reviews knowledge about global climate change, examines time series of global mean temperature and precipitation, and compares two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Explains why detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming. Also reviews some explanations of the observed changes in global mean climate.

"Time Series Analyses of Global Change Data," L.J. Lane (Watershed Res. Ctr., ARS, USDA, 2000 E. Allen Rd., Tucson AZ 85719), M.H. Nichols, H.B. Osborn, 63-68. Examines whether statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations on climate change from anthropogenic causes. Relates global temperature data for 1901-1987 to atmospheric CO₂ concentration, and to the Wolf sunspot number. The strengths of the statistical relationships among time, temperature, atmospheric CO₂ and sunspots are interpreted as supporting or refuting the basic hypothesis. Concludes that additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic and natural components when assessing warming trends.

"Long-Term Changes in Elemental Deposition at the Earth's Surface," P. Brimblecombe (Sch. Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), 81-85. Uses estimates of the balance of natural and anthropogenic sources of a range of elements to examine the probable variation in deposition at the Earth's surface. Focuses on elements regarded as toxic, whose concentrations seem likely to continue increasing in industrial areas.

Item #d95sep81

"Historical ENSO Teleconnections in the Eastern Hemisphere," P. Whetton (CSIRO, P.B. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia), I. Rutherfurd, Clim. Change, 28(5), 221-253, Nov. 1994.

Examines the pattern of ENSO teleconnections over the last 500 years, noting any changes that may be relevant in estimating ENSO's future behavior, such as response to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Item #d95sep82

"Glacier Trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s," D.P. Bedford (CIRES, Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), R.G. Barry, Phys. Geog., 15(5), 414-424, Sep.-Oct. 1994.

Analyzes newly available Caucasus glacier records from the 1960s to 1980s for the percentage that are retreating, advancing and stationary as a five-year moving average. The absence of a clear trend towards glacier advance in the Alps during the same period suggests a phase difference in the climates of the Alps and the Caucasus.

Item #d95sep83

"Variations of Air Temperature and Cloudiness over the Former USSR Territory in 1967-1990," N.A. Efimova (State Hydrol. Inst., Russia), L.A. Strokina et al., Russian Meteor. & Hydrol., No. 6, 37-40, 1994.

Increases in air temperature over the period were 1.6° C in daytime and 1.8° C at night. Daytime and nighttime cloudiness also increased.

Item #d95sep84

"Climatic Warming in North America: Analysis of Borehole Temperatures," D. Deming, Science, 268(5217), 1576-1577, June 16, 1995.

Gives a synopsis of evidence of climate change based on examination of the profile of temperature versus depth in holes bored in the Earth. The sum of evidence from this technique, combined with the conventional instrumental record of surface air temperatures, is consistent with a major climatic warming over the North American continent since the middle of the 19th century. However, the magnitude of the warming is within the range of natural variability, and a cause and effect relationship to anthropogenic activities cannot be demonstrated unambiguously at this time.

Item #d95sep85

"Tree Ring Width and Density Evidence of Climatic and Potential Forest Change in Alaska," G.C. Jacoby (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observ., Rte. 9W, Palisades NY 10964), R.D. D'Arrigo, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 9(2), 227-234, June 1995.

Analysis of core samples from trees shows that the climatic warming observed over much of Alaska during the past century is not producing ever-increasing tree growth. Instead, warmer temperatures may be slowing tree growth by promoting moisture loss and attacks by insects and diseases. (See summary and discussion in Science, p. 1595, Mar. 17, 1995.)

Item #d95sep86

"The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precession," D.J. Thomson (AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill NJ 07974), Science, 268(5207), 59-67, Apr. 7, 1995.

(See Research News, May 1995 Digest.) Statistically analyzes the structure of the annual or seasonal cycle in temperature time series since the year 1659, using complex demodulation. The results have several implications for interpretation of the Earth's temperature record, including that solar variability cannot be the sole cause of the temperature increase observed over the last century. About 1940, the phase patterns of the previous 300 years began to change; the average change in phase is now coherent with the logarithm of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Other results suggest that the effects of increasing greenhouse gases may be worse than previously thought.

Item #d95sep87

"Estimating Global Changes in Precipitation," M. Hulme (Clim. Res. Unit., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Weather, 50(2), 34-42, Feb. 1995.

Summarizes the problems of establishing a global-mean record of precipitation spanning the instrumental period, a considerably more difficult task than estimating surface air temperature. The much larger natural variation of precipitation in space and time is a major problem, and also makes interpretation of estimated changes more difficult. Finding signals of human-induced climate change in the precipitation record will remain an intractable problem for some years to come.

Item #d95sep88

"Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapour at a Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere Site from 1981 to 1994," S.J. Oltmans (CMDL, NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303), D.J. Hofmann, Nature, 374(6518), 146-149, Mar. 9, 1995.

Measurements show a significant increase in water-vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere over the period, larger than might be expected from the stratospheric oxidation of increasing concentrations of atmospheric methane. The increase may be linked to other climate variations, such as the observed global temperature rise in recent decades.

Item #d95sep89

"Tropospheric Budget of Reactive Chlorine," T.E. Graedel (AT&T Bell Labs., Murray Hill NJ 07974), W.C. Keene, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 9(1), 47-77, Mar. 1995.

Reactive chlorine in the lower atmosphere is important to precipitation acidity, corrosion, foliar damage, and the chemistry of the marine boundary layer. A synthesis of available information shows that the tropospheric reactive chlorine burden appears to be increasing by several percent per year. Coal combustion is one source, although there are substantial natural sources. Concentrations are anticipated to increase in the next several decades, particularly near urban areas in the rapidly developing countries.

Item #d95sep90

"Long-Term Changes of the Surface Air Temperature in Relation to Solar Inertial Motion," I. Charvátová (Geophys. Inst. AS CR, Bocní II, 141 31 Praha 4 — Sporilov, Czech Rep.), J. Strestír, Clim. Change, 29(3), 333-352, Mar. 1995.

An exploratory study of the possible influence (on surface air temperature) of the inertial motion of the sun around the center of mass of the solar system. Statistical examination of instrumental temperature records suggests a basic cycle of 180-200 years, which would coincide with the relative warmth observed during 1760-70 and 1940-50. During the period 1990 to 2040, the sun is in another period of chaotic motion, which may decrease temperature as much as 0.5° C. However, following 2040, the Sun will enter a very long period of ordered motion which occurs every 2160 years; a long-term temperature maximum similar to that observed during the last such period (80 B.C. to 160 A.D.) could ensue.

Item #d95sep91

"Resampling of Network-Induced Variability in Estimates of Terrestrial Air Temperature Change," S.M. Robeson (Dept. Geog., Indiana Univ., Bloomington IN 47405), Clim. Change, 29(2), 213-229, Feb. 1995.

Addresses the problem of uneven and changing spatial distributions of air temperature stations and the changing numbers of stations in relation to estimates of air temperature change derived from historical observation networks. Terrestrial average air temperature anomaly estimates are produced that vary by more than 0.3° C, solely due to network changes.

Item #d95sep92

"Mechanisms of Shrubland Expansion: Land Use, Climate or CO₂?" S. Archer (Dept. Rangeland Ecol. & Mgmt., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), D.S. Schimel, E.A. Holland, Clim. Change, 29(1), 91-99, Jan. 1995.

Evaluation of the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses shows that there is not a cause-and-effect relationship between the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the Industrial Revolution and displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems.

Item #d95sep93

"Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends," N.E. Graham (Sci. Res. Div., Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), Science, 267(5198), 666-671, Feb. 3, 1995.

Global average tropospheric temperatures have risen during the past century. The sharp rise since the mid-1970s can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. Although the observed behavior may be from natural climate variability, there is disquieting similarity among the model results, observed climate trends in recent decades, and the early expressions of the climatic response to increased atmospheric CO₂ in numerical simulations.