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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 9, NUMBER 4, APRIL 1996

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
INTERDECADAL FLUCTUATIONS

Item #d96apr26

"Interpretation of Interdecadal Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperatures," J.M. Wallace (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Box 351640, Univ. Washington, Seattle WA 98195), Y. Zhang, L. Bajuk, J. Clim., 9(2), 249-259, Feb. 1996.

Further explores a topic examined by the authors in the Nov. 3, 1995, issue of Science. (See Wallace et al. paper, Global Climate Change Digest, Prof. Pubs./Trend Analysis, Jan. 1996.) Anomalously high surface air temperatures observed over high latitude, Northern Hemisphere continental regions in the 1980s are consistent with the pattern of greenhouse gas induced warming predicted by climate models. The data analysis presented here suggests, although not conclusively, that changes in circulation patterns (not necessarily related to greenhouse warming) could have accounted for this recent trend. A better estimate of any trend in the hemispheric mean temperature record that is related to greenhouse gases can be obtained by removing the effects of a pronounced cold ocean—warm land pattern of temperature fluctuations evident in the data.

Item #d96apr27

"Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries," M.E. Mann (Dept. Geol., Yale Univ., POB 208109, New Haven CT 06520), J. Park, R.S. Bradley, Nature, 378(6554), 266-270, Nov. 16, 1995.

Reports a multivariate statistical analysis of a small but global set of high-quality temperature proxy records, extending over several centuries. The results strengthen evidence for persistent, natural interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations, and reveal both the spatial patterns and temporal histories of these signals.

Item #d96apr28

"Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures," G. Plaut, M. Ghil (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Univ. California, Los Angeles CA 90095), R. Vautard, Science, 268(5211), 710 ff., May 5, 1995.

Singular spectrum analysis has identified climate oscillations in this temperature record with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction shows temperatures decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.