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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
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FROM VOLUME 9, NUMBER 7, JULY 1996

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS: IMPACTS ON HEALTH & SOCIETY

Item #d96jul4

Two items from Clim. Change, 32(4), Apr. 1996:

"Late 20th Century Climatic Change over the Northern Hemisphere and Its Consequences for Numerical Weather Prediction," B. Kuemmel (IMFUFA, RUC, PB 260, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark), 379-385. An editorial essay discussing ways in which rising greenhouse gases and their interaction with anthropogenic sulfate aerosols could complicate the performance of weather prediction models, and modifications to the models that may be necessary.

"Effects of Summer Precipitation on Urban Transportation," S.A. Changnon (Atmos. Sci. Div., State Water Survey, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign IL 61820), 481-494. Uses a three-year period of data to evaluate the effect of more rainy days and heavier rains that are predicted as potential results of an enhanced greenhouse effect. More summer rain days, somewhat higher rain rates, and more storms would mean more total vehicular accidents, more total injuries in those accidents, decreased use of public transportation, and more aircraft accidents and delays. A drier climate would likely experience fewer moderate-to-heavy rain events, but rain events during drier conditions produced a greater frequency of accidents and injuries per event.

Item #d96jul5

"Standardized Estimates of Climate Change Damages for the United States," J.B. Smith (Hagler Bailly Consulting Inc., P.O. Drawer O, Boulder CO 80306), ibid., 32(3), 312-326, Mar. 1996.

The major estimates of U.S. climate change damages by the year 2060 published by Nordhaus (1991), Cline (1992), Fankhauser (1992) and Titus (1992) range from $55 billion to $111 billion, but are based in part on studies assuming a higher level of warming than now estimated. This paper adjusts the results of these studies to 2.5° C warming, a 50-cm sea level rise, 1990 income and population, and a 4% real rate of return on investments. After standardization, the damage estimates range from $42 billion to $53 billion. However, within individual sectors, such as agriculture and electricity, standardized damages differ by more than an order of magnitude, so the apparent agreement of the total damage estimates should be interpreted with caution.

Item #d96jul6

"Global Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases," J.A. Patz (Dept. Molecular Microbiol., Johns Hopkins Univ., Sch. Hygiene & Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore MD 21205), P.R. Epstein et al., J. Amer. Medical Assoc., 275(3), 217 ff., Jan. 17, 1996.

Climate is one of several factors influencing the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne diseases (including malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitides) are among the most sensitive to climate. Climate-related increases in sea surface temperature and sea level could lead to higher frequency of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. Analyzing the role of climate in disease will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists.

Item #d96jul7

"Climatic Change and Migration from Oceania: Implications for Australia, New Zealand and the United States of America," E.J. Moore, J.W. Smith (Dept. Geog., Univ. Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, S. Australia), Population & Environ., 17(2), 105-122, Nov. 1995.

Assesses migration that may result in response to climate shifts over the next thirty years, from small island states in the south-west Pacific to these developed countries. The adverse impact of climate change will be one extra pressure on small island states, many of which are already struggling to cope with sustainable management of their natural resources and with the demands of their rapidly growing populations for education, housing and employment. Migration is likely to entail significant medium-term health, psychological and social costs for some Pacific island immigrants, as they try to move or cope with life in industrialized societies.

Item #d96jul8

"Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States," D.H. Rosenthal, H.K. Gruenspecht (Off. Econ. Analysis, U.S. DOE, Washington DC 20585), E.A. Moran, The Energy J., 16(2), 77-96, 1996.

Finds that a global warming of 1£ C would reduce projected U.S. energy expenditures in 2010 for space heating and cooling by 5.5 billion (1991) dollars, a result opposite in sign to earlier estimates by Nordhaus (1991) and Cline (1992). Discusses reasons for the discrepancy, and makes comparisons with similar estimates for the IPCC. Explores a variety of avenues for continuing research on the energy impacts of global warming.