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Global Climate Change Digest
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FROM VOLUME 9, NUMBERS 10-11, OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 1996

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
ENERGY POLICY & ANALYSIS

Item #d96oct31

Invited Issue. "Pacific Energy Outlook: Strategies and Policy Imperatives to 2010," F. Fesharaki, A.L. Clark, D. Intarapravich, Eds., Energy, 21(11), Nov. 1996. The editors and all contributors are associated with the Program on Resources, East-West Ctr., 1777 East-West Rd., Honolulu HI 96848. The Asia-Pacific region has emerged as the engine of growth for world energy markets. Not only have fast economic growth and liberalized policies unleashed unprecedented growth in demand, but also inadequate energy supplies are forcing the region to become the largest energy importing area in the world. The five papers in this issue provide an overview of the East-West Center's analyses of and forecasts for the energy sector to the year 2010, which require individual analysis for each country. The Center has specialized in this field for over a decade.

1. "Asia as the Center of Gravity of the World Energy System," F. Fesharaki, 999-1003.

2. "Economic Assumptions Underlying Asian Energy Markets," J.P. Dorian, D. Intarapravich et al., 1005-1015.

3. "Asia-Pacific Energy Supply and Demand to 2010," D. Intarapravich, C.J. Johnson et al., 1017-1039.

4. "China and the Former Soviet Union," F.C. Tang, E. Khartukov, 1041-1046.

5. "Energy and the Environment," C. Bloyd, 1047-1050.

Item #d96oct32

"Trying to Develop Third World Energy Policy—The Limits of Intervention," P. O'Keefe (Div. Geog. & Environ. Mgmt., Univ. Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, U.K.), Intl. J. Environ. Studies, 50, 201-212, 1996.

From a broad and practical perspective, examines the difficulties of developing energy policy in the Third World. Discusses the role of governmental institutions, the role of energy in production, and the emerging nature of energy markets, particularly for electricity. Summarizes specific characteristics of good energy management at various levels of organization.

Item #d96oct33

"International DSM and DSM Program Evaluation: An INDEEP [International Database on Energy Efficiency Programs] Assessment," E.L. Vine (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Bldg. 90-2000, Berkeley CA 94720), Energy, 21(10), 983-996, Oct. 1996.

Discusses first results from INDEEP, a joint international project to compile and analyze the measured results of energy efficiency programs in a consistent manner, coordinated through the International Energy Agency. Compares characteristics of thirteen European DSM programs, concluding that they represent cost-effective resources. These types of DSM programs will be useful for utilities and governments as utilities start to compete and restructure.

Item #d96oct34

Two related items in Energy, 21(9), Sep. 1996:

"A Stochastic Version of the Dynamic Linear Programming Model MESSAGE III," S. Messner (ECS Project, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria), A. Golodnikov, A. Gritsevskii, 775-784. The dynamic linear programming model MESSSAGE III is being used at IIASA to analyze long-term energy strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper presents a stochastic version of the model, which, instead of using point estimates, introduces distribution functions for technology and other parameters. Comparison with the standard version illustrates how this approach is better suited for handling uncertainty in technological characteristics, and situations where results are sensitive to input parameters.

"Energy-Economy Analysis: Linking the Macroeconomic and Systems Engineering Approaches," C.-O. Wene (Energy Systems Technol., Chalmers Univ. of Technol., Göteborg, Swed.), 809-824. The two major approaches to energy-economy modeling are macroeconomic ("top-down") and system engineering ("bottom-up"), both of which have certain advantages. This paper describes an informal linking of these two types of model at IIASA for integrated energy-economic modeling. The systems engineering model is MESSAGE III (see previous entry), the other is ETA-MACRO (later known as Global 2100.)

Item #d96oct35

"The Shift to a Carbon-Free Energy System," N. Lenssen (E Source Inc., 1033 Walnut St., Boulder CO 80302), C. Flavin, Ambio, 25(6), 426-427, Sep. 1996.

Briefly summarizes the points made in the following paper by the same authors.

Item #d96oct36

Two items in Energy Policy, 24(9), Sep. 1996.

"Sustainable Energy for Tomorrow's World. The Case for an Optimistic View of the Future," N. Lenssen (address above), C. Flavin, 769-781. Describes an optimistic sustainable energy scenario that lays out an accelerated path to a low-carbon energy system, based on the authors' 1994 book, Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution. (See GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST Books/Energy Policy, Nov.-Dec. 1994.) They believe the world energy economy is poised for a sweeping shift away from imported oil and environmentally damaging coal during the next few decades, which could usher in a period of rapid and sustained economic growth and stabilize CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere during the next half century.

"Real Rural Residential Energy Consumption in China, 1990," J.W. Sun (Turku Sch. Econ., POB 110, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland), 827-839. Examines the difficulties in making realistic estimates of rural energy consumption, and proposes ways of improving energy analyses of developing countries. Concludes that the Chinese government must pay more attention to managing rural energy consumption and improving energy efficiency there. (See next entry.)

Item #d96oct37

Four related items in Energy, 21(7-8), July-Aug. 1996:

"Survey of Rural Household Energy Consumption in China," W. Xiaohua (Agricultural Eng. College, Nanjing Agric. Univ., Nanjing 210032, PRC), F. Zhenming, 703-705. Comprehensive energy surveys of 3240 households show large differences among the six study regions which depend on locality and availability of fuels. Biomass accounts for 60-90% of total household energy consumption; the average energy-conversion efficiency is in the range 10-20%. Where pressure on the biomass resource base has become too severe, the balance between local agricultural and hillside ecosystems has unraveled and caused accelerated destruction of limited land resources. Although higher income households need more commercial energy, especially as electricity, rural household energy will continue to depend mainly on biomass.

"Fuel Cell Technology: Status and Future Prospects," A.J. Appleby (Ctr. Electrochemical Systems, 238 WERC, Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), 521-653. An invited review of fuel cell generators from the standpoint of systems, markets, emissions, and cost-reduction. The fuel cell promises to be an important energy conversion technology, and will help reduce CO₂ emissions in the next century. Papers and symposium presentations from 1991 to May 1995 are extensively reviewed; engineering activity to August 1995 is generally reviewed.

"Long-Term Trends in the U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," W.H. Golove (Energy Analysis Prog., MS 90-4000, Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Berkeley CA 94720), L.J. Schipper, 683-692. Describes the authors' most recent analysis, which extends their previous work to three time periods, two with stable energy prices (1958-1973 and 1985-1991), and the intervening years, when energy prices rose significantly. The method has also been adapted to examine the historical trends of CO₂ emissions associated with manufacturing.

"Consumer Non-Energy Benefits as a Motivation for Making Energy-Efficiency Improvements," E. Mills (Ctr. for Building Sci., Lawrence Berkeley Lab., MS 90-3058, Berkeley CA 94720), A. Rosenfeld, 707-720. Non-energy benefits for consumers of energy efficient technologies merit more emphasis in technology assessment, marketing and program evaluation than they currently receive. One class of benefits accrue at the national level (improved competitiveness, energy security, net job creation, environmental protection), while another relates to consumers and their decision making processes. This paper identifies such technologies and gives examples of how such benefits often motivate consumer decisions.

Item #d96oct38

Three items in Energy Policy, 24(8), Aug. 1996:

"Transport and the Environment: Can Technology Provide the Answers?" M. Bauer (Programa Univ. de Energia, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico), 685-687. The environmental impact of a transportation sector based on fossil fuels can best be addressed in both developed and developing countries by promoting lifestyle changes that incorporate the most efficient vehicles. In view of the market penetration difficulties experienced so far by innovative technology, the assistance of the mass media is essential to this process.

"Current Limitations on Further Introduction of Renewable Energy Systems in the South Pacific. Five National Case Studies," X. Yu (Sch. Environ., Macquarie Univ., Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia), A. Gilmour, R. Taplin, 697-711. Primarily an examination of Australian international aid policy and practice that concludes that major limitations are shortages of skilled human resources, inappropriate institutions, and scarcity of capital resources. Future international aid should remedy these deficiencies and give priority to renewable energy.

"China's Power Management," M. Yang (Sch. Environ, Resour. & Develop., Asian Inst. Technol., POB 4, Klongluang 12120, Thailand), X. Yu, 735-757. Provides a comprehensive assessment based on statistical data, current research literature, and national government official reports, organized along three management policies: supply-side, demand-side and environmental conservation. Concludes that the central government should continue changing the planning system to a competitive market-oriented mode, abolish the power project approval policy, speed reforms in electricity pricing, encourage the development of the power industry, and invest in energy efficiency as much as in generation.

Item #d96oct39

"A Dead-End Energy Policy," W.H. Glaze, Environ. Sci. & Technol., 30(8), 323A, Aug. 1996.

A comment by the journal's editor. Future generations will be dismayed that a few powerful business people and government officials decided how energy would be generated and distributed, and in the process mortgaged the future. A new awakening of society is needed before a sustainable energy policy will emerge in the U.S.

Item #d96oct40

"Energy Efficient Lighting: Market Data, Market Imperfections and Policy Success," J.G. Koomey (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Bldg. 90-4000, Berkeley CA 94720; e-mail: JGKoomey@lbl.gov), A.H. Sanstad, L.J. Shown, Contemporary Econ. Policy, 14(3), 98-111, July 1996.

Energy-economic studies demonstrating the anomalously slow adoption of energy-efficient technology, and the resulting benefits of regulation to promote such technology, have been questioned by many economists. This study addresses such critiques using as example the adoption of energy-efficient magnetic ballasts for fluorescent lighting. Although this technology is a good investment for most commercial applications, empirical evidence indicates that adoption remains slow, and that regulations such as appliance efficiency standards are an effective remedy.

Item #d96oct41

Two Items in Energy, 21(6), June 1996:

"Can Different Energy Resources Be Added or Compared?" J. Zarnikau (Planergy Inc., Barton Oaks Plaza Two, S. 495, 901 MoPac Expressway S., Austin TX 78746), S. Guermouche, P. Schmidt, 483-491. The practice of directly adding and comparing Btus of energy from different energy resources may yield misleading conclusions in economic and policy studies. This paper reviews conditions necessary for aggregation or comparison and contrasts different approaches, emphasizing the advantages of one particular economic aggregation index (Divisia).

"Critical Comments on Renewable Energy...by T.B. Johansson..," F.E. Trainer, 511-517. (Listed in GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST, Books/Energy Policy & Technol., Apr. 1993.) This detailed volume is likely to be an important reference for the discussion of renewable energy for many years to come because it reinforces the assumption that there will be no major difficulty in replacing present energy sources with renewable sources. Trainer presents reasons for rejecting the book's conclusion. Under realistic assumptions, renewable sources are unlikely to meet the currently projected future energy demand. The only viable path to sustainability requires a "limits to growth" approach, incorporating lower (global average) material living standards, highly self-sufficient local economies, and little or no economic growth.

Item #d96oct42

"Transitions to Alternative Energy Supply Technologies. The Case of Windpower," P. Street (Policy Res. in Eng., Sci. & Technol., Univ. Manchester, Oxford Rd., Manchester M13 9PL, UK), I. Miles, Energy Policy, 24(5), 413-425, May 1996.

Examines the technological and policy factors affecting the potential for a shift toward windpower. There are no obvious reasons why windpower cannot form part of a combination of renewables that will make a significant contribution to our electrical energy. However, windpower—and other renewables—are presently providing energy which contributes to the existing structure of energy distribution. Thus any change in the technical regime is occurring within the current system of power generation, rather than within the whole energy system.

Item #d96oct43

"Photovoltaics in the Developing World," I. Chambouleyron (Inst. Fisica Gleb Wataghin, Univ. Estadual de Campinas-UNICAMP, POB 6165, 13083-970 Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil), Energy, 21(5), 385-394, May 1996.

Discusses the various uses of photovoltaic systems and the problems hindering their widespread use. Contrasts the differing approaches to the dissemination of stand-alone PV power in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. An official PV policy is essential for successful implementation in developing countries. Discusses the role of regional centers for solar technologies.

Item #d96oct44

"Helping the Earth Begins at Home. The Social Construction of Socio-Environmental Responsibilities," S. Hinchcliffe (Dept. Geog., Univ. Keele, Keele, Staffs ST5 5BG, UK), Global Environ. Change, 6(1), 53-62, Apr. 1996.

Evaluates the British government's current, five-year old campaign for energy conservation, Helping the Earth Begins at Home. Looks at the theoretical context of the campaign's approach, the ideological input to the production of the campaign, and the public's reaction to it, based on extensive interviews. Explains how the program's lack of appeal and inability to capture the interest and imagination of the British public is rooted in its formulation and context, and discusses general implications for socio-environmental action.

Item #d96oct45

Two items in Energy, 21(4), Apr. 1996:

"Energy-Efficiency: Issues for the Decade," J.M. Hollander (Energy & Resour. Group, Univ. California, LBL Bldg 73, Berkeley CA 94720), T.R. Schneider, 273-287. The rate of improvement of energy-use efficiency has slowed, and energy efficiency continues to be a controversial subject. This review explores the character and genesis of the debate and assesses the role of market forces, government intervention, and technological innovation in determining future progress. Decreasing energy prices have weakened the earlier economic stimulus to energy efficiency, but a strong drive arises from environmental concerns. Examines the proposition that innovation stimulated by R&D investment has been a key ingredient in the development of energy-efficient technologies, and asserts that the continuing development of a knowledge base to assure future innovation requires a strong government/private-sector partnership.

"Sustainable Urban Energy-Environment Management with Multiple Objectives," R.K. Bose (Tata Energy Res. Inst., Darbari Seth Block, India Habitat Ctr., Lodi Rd., New Delhi 110 003, India), G. Anandalingam, 305-318. Presents a "goal programming" model designed to capture multiple objectives involved in sustainable energy-environment management in an urban area. The integrated urban model is used to assist in developing a sectoral energy plan for the city of New Delhi.

Item #d96oct46

"Hydro-Québec Energy Savings Programs: 'Watt' Are They Worth?" E. Arsenault (GREEN, Dépt. d'écon., Ste.-Foy PQ G1K 7P4, Can.), J.-T. Bernard, E. Genest-Laplante, Resour. & Energy Econ., 18(1), 65-81, Mar. 1996.

Hydro-Québec, a large electric utility owned by the provincial government, is replacing investment in new hydro-electric projects with investment in energy savings, with $3.9 billion allocated for 1992-2010. This study is a cost-benefit analysis of the programs, taking into account the financial criteria underlying electricity rates paid by consumers. Estimates annual savings of $181 million to $388 million. Consumers are the main beneficiaries; Hydro-Québec is a marginal beneficiary, but the government is a net loser.

Item #d96oct47

"A Free Lunch at Higher CAFE? A Review of Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits," H. Dowlatabadi (Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh PA 15213), L.B. Lave, A.G. Russell, Energy Policy, 24(3), 253-264, Mar. 1996.

Pressure has been increasing to raise the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for automobiles. This analysis finds that fuel savings from increasing CAFE are subject to diminishing returns, with little or no effect on urban air pollution, and a less than proportional reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Given current technology, substantial increases in CAFE have substantial costs, including reduced safety, and do not appear to offer significant benefits as contended.

Item #d96oct48

Two items in Energy, 21(2), Feb. 1996:

"A Comparative Assessment of the Energy and Carbon Balance of Utilizing Straw," R.E. Horne (Resources Res. Unit., Sch. Urban & Regional Studies, Sheffield Hallam Univ., Sheffield S1 1WB, UK), N.D. Mortimer et al., 77-86. Because burning straw in the field is often banned, a surplus has developed and interest has grown in using it to generate electricity and/or heat. This study adopts existing methods to analyze primary energy inputs and CO₂ outputs, and uses results to evaluate alternative uses. The displacement of fossil fuel is a critical factor in the outcome; a straw-fired combined heat and power plant is found to be the most efficient method of dealing with straw in areas of intense cereal production.

"Energy Analysis of the Structures of Industrial Organizations," T.S. Lough (1213 Island Dr. #103, Ann Arbor MI 48105), 131-139. Reviews energy analyses, data, research and methods relevant to determine the energy required just to maintain industrial structures. Examination of six organizations confirms earlier findings: (1) smaller firms are more energy efficient (in Btu/employee-year) in maintaining structures than are larger firms; (2) private-sector firms are more energy-efficient than public ones; (3) service-producing firms are more efficient than goods-producing firms; and (4) a public-sector service-provider spent its dollars on goods and services that require more energy (Btu/dollar) than any of the other five firms.