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FROM VOLUME 9, NUMBERS 10-11, OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 1996
ENERGY POLICY & ANALYSIS
"Pacific Energy Outlook: Strategies and Policy Imperatives to 2010,"
F. Fesharaki, A.L. Clark, D. Intarapravich, Eds., Energy, 21(11),
Nov. 1996. The editors and all contributors are associated with the Program on
Resources, East-West Ctr., 1777 East-West Rd., Honolulu HI 96848. The
Asia-Pacific region has emerged as the engine of growth for world energy
markets. Not only have fast economic growth and liberalized policies unleashed
unprecedented growth in demand, but also inadequate energy supplies are forcing
the region to become the largest energy importing area in the world. The five
papers in this issue provide an overview of the East-West Center's analyses of
and forecasts for the energy sector to the year 2010, which require individual
analysis for each country. The Center has specialized in this field for over a
1. "Asia as the Center of Gravity of the World Energy System," F.
2. "Economic Assumptions Underlying Asian Energy Markets," J.P.
Dorian, D. Intarapravich et al., 1005-1015.
3. "Asia-Pacific Energy Supply and Demand to 2010," D.
Intarapravich, C.J. Johnson et al., 1017-1039.
4. "China and the Former Soviet Union," F.C. Tang, E. Khartukov,
5. "Energy and the Environment," C. Bloyd, 1047-1050.
Develop Third World Energy PolicyThe Limits of Intervention," P.
O'Keefe (Div. Geog. & Environ. Mgmt., Univ. Northumbria, Newcastle upon
Tyne, U.K.), Intl. J. Environ. Studies, 50, 201-212, 1996.
From a broad and practical perspective, examines the difficulties of
developing energy policy in the Third World. Discusses the role of governmental
institutions, the role of energy in production, and the emerging nature of
energy markets, particularly for electricity. Summarizes specific
characteristics of good energy management at various levels of organization.
DSM and DSM Program Evaluation: An INDEEP [International Database on Energy
Efficiency Programs] Assessment," E.L. Vine (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Bldg.
90-2000, Berkeley CA 94720), Energy,
21(10), 983-996, Oct. 1996.
Discusses first results from INDEEP, a joint international project to
compile and analyze the measured results of energy efficiency programs in a
consistent manner, coordinated through the International Energy Agency. Compares
characteristics of thirteen European DSM programs, concluding that they
represent cost-effective resources. These types of DSM programs will be useful
for utilities and governments as utilities start to compete and restructure.
Two related items in
Energy, 21(9), Sep. 1996:
"A Stochastic Version of the Dynamic Linear Programming Model MESSAGE
III," S. Messner (ECS Project, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria), A.
Golodnikov, A. Gritsevskii, 775-784. The dynamic linear programming model
MESSSAGE III is being used at IIASA to analyze long-term energy strategies to
mitigate climate change. This paper presents a stochastic version of the model,
which, instead of using point estimates, introduces distribution functions for
technology and other parameters. Comparison with the standard version
illustrates how this approach is better suited for handling uncertainty in
technological characteristics, and situations where results are sensitive to
"Energy-Economy Analysis: Linking the Macroeconomic and Systems
Engineering Approaches," C.-O. Wene (Energy Systems Technol., Chalmers
Univ. of Technol., Göteborg, Swed.), 809-824. The two major approaches to
energy-economy modeling are macroeconomic ("top-down") and system
engineering ("bottom-up"), both of which have certain advantages. This
paper describes an informal linking of these two types of model at IIASA for
integrated energy-economic modeling. The systems engineering model is MESSAGE
III (see previous entry), the other is ETA-MACRO (later known as Global 2100.)
"The Shift to a
Carbon-Free Energy System," N. Lenssen (E Source Inc., 1033 Walnut St.,
Boulder CO 80302), C. Flavin, Ambio, 25(6), 426-427, Sep. 1996.
Briefly summarizes the points made in the following paper by the same
Two items in Energy
Policy, 24(9), Sep. 1996.
"Sustainable Energy for Tomorrow's World. The Case for an Optimistic
View of the Future," N. Lenssen (address above), C. Flavin, 769-781.
Describes an optimistic sustainable energy scenario that lays out an accelerated
path to a low-carbon energy system, based on the authors' 1994 book, Power
Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution. (See GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
DIGEST Books/Energy Policy, Nov.-Dec. 1994.) They believe the world energy
economy is poised for a sweeping shift away from imported oil and
environmentally damaging coal during the next few decades, which could usher in
a period of rapid and sustained economic growth and stabilize CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere during the next half century.
"Real Rural Residential Energy Consumption in China, 1990," J.W.
Sun (Turku Sch. Econ., POB 110, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland), 827-839. Examines the
difficulties in making realistic estimates of rural energy consumption, and
proposes ways of improving energy analyses of developing countries. Concludes
that the Chinese government must pay more attention to managing rural energy
consumption and improving energy efficiency there. (See next entry.)
Four related items in
Energy, 21(7-8), July-Aug. 1996:
"Survey of Rural Household Energy Consumption in China," W.
Xiaohua (Agricultural Eng. College, Nanjing Agric. Univ., Nanjing 210032, PRC),
F. Zhenming, 703-705. Comprehensive energy surveys of 3240 households show large
differences among the six study regions which depend on locality and
availability of fuels. Biomass accounts for 60-90% of total household energy
consumption; the average energy-conversion efficiency is in the range 10-20%.
Where pressure on the biomass resource base has become too severe, the balance
between local agricultural and hillside ecosystems has unraveled and caused
accelerated destruction of limited land resources. Although higher income
households need more commercial energy, especially as electricity, rural
household energy will continue to depend mainly on biomass.
"Fuel Cell Technology: Status and Future Prospects," A.J. Appleby
(Ctr. Electrochemical Systems, 238 WERC, Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX
77843), 521-653. An invited review of fuel cell generators from the standpoint
of systems, markets, emissions, and cost-reduction. The fuel cell promises to be
an important energy conversion technology, and will help reduce CO2
emissions in the next century. Papers and symposium presentations from 1991 to
May 1995 are extensively reviewed; engineering activity to August 1995 is
"Long-Term Trends in the U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption and
Carbon Dioxide Emissions," W.H. Golove (Energy Analysis Prog., MS 90-4000,
Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Berkeley CA 94720), L.J. Schipper, 683-692. Describes
the authors' most recent analysis, which extends their previous work to three
time periods, two with stable energy prices (1958-1973 and 1985-1991), and the
intervening years, when energy prices rose significantly. The method has also
been adapted to examine the historical trends of CO2 emissions
associated with manufacturing.
"Consumer Non-Energy Benefits as a Motivation for Making
Energy-Efficiency Improvements," E. Mills (Ctr. for Building Sci., Lawrence
Berkeley Lab., MS 90-3058, Berkeley CA 94720), A. Rosenfeld, 707-720. Non-energy
benefits for consumers of energy efficient technologies merit more emphasis in
technology assessment, marketing and program evaluation than they currently
receive. One class of benefits accrue at the national level (improved
competitiveness, energy security, net job creation, environmental protection),
while another relates to consumers and their decision making processes. This
paper identifies such technologies and gives examples of how such benefits often
motivate consumer decisions.
Three items in Energy
Policy, 24(8), Aug. 1996:
"Transport and the Environment: Can Technology Provide the Answers?"
M. Bauer (Programa Univ. de Energia, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico),
685-687. The environmental impact of a transportation sector based on fossil
fuels can best be addressed in both developed and developing countries by
promoting lifestyle changes that incorporate the most efficient vehicles. In
view of the market penetration difficulties experienced so far by innovative
technology, the assistance of the mass media is essential to this process.
"Current Limitations on Further Introduction of Renewable Energy
Systems in the South Pacific. Five National Case Studies," X. Yu (Sch.
Environ., Macquarie Univ., Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia), A. Gilmour, R. Taplin,
697-711. Primarily an examination of Australian international aid policy and
practice that concludes that major limitations are shortages of skilled human
resources, inappropriate institutions, and scarcity of capital resources. Future
international aid should remedy these deficiencies and give priority to
"China's Power Management," M. Yang (Sch. Environ, Resour. &
Develop., Asian Inst. Technol., POB 4, Klongluang 12120, Thailand), X. Yu,
735-757. Provides a comprehensive assessment based on statistical data, current
research literature, and national government official reports, organized along
three management policies: supply-side, demand-side and environmental
conservation. Concludes that the central government should continue changing the
planning system to a competitive market-oriented mode, abolish the power project
approval policy, speed reforms in electricity pricing, encourage the development
of the power industry, and invest in energy efficiency as much as in generation.
Energy Policy," W.H. Glaze, Environ. Sci. & Technol., 30(8),
323A, Aug. 1996.
A comment by the journal's editor. Future generations will be dismayed that
a few powerful business people and government officials decided how energy would
be generated and distributed, and in the process mortgaged the future. A new
awakening of society is needed before a sustainable energy policy will emerge in
Lighting: Market Data, Market Imperfections and Policy Success," J.G.
Koomey (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Bldg. 90-4000, Berkeley CA 94720; e-mail:
JGKoomey@lbl.gov), A.H. Sanstad, L.J. Shown, Contemporary Econ. Policy,
14(3), 98-111, July 1996.
Energy-economic studies demonstrating the anomalously slow adoption of
energy-efficient technology, and the resulting benefits of regulation to promote
such technology, have been questioned by many economists. This study addresses
such critiques using as example the adoption of energy-efficient magnetic
ballasts for fluorescent lighting. Although this technology is a good investment
for most commercial applications, empirical evidence indicates that adoption
remains slow, and that regulations such as appliance efficiency standards are an
Two Items in Energy,
21(6), June 1996:
"Can Different Energy Resources Be Added or Compared?" J. Zarnikau
(Planergy Inc., Barton Oaks Plaza Two, S. 495, 901 MoPac Expressway S., Austin
TX 78746), S. Guermouche, P. Schmidt, 483-491. The practice of directly adding
and comparing Btus of energy from different energy resources may yield
misleading conclusions in economic and policy studies. This paper reviews
conditions necessary for aggregation or comparison and contrasts different
approaches, emphasizing the advantages of one particular economic aggregation
"Critical Comments on Renewable Energy...by T.B. Johansson..,"
F.E. Trainer, 511-517. (Listed in GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST,
Books/Energy Policy & Technol., Apr. 1993.) This detailed volume is likely
to be an important reference for the discussion of renewable energy for many
years to come because it reinforces the assumption that there will be no major
difficulty in replacing present energy sources with renewable sources. Trainer
presents reasons for rejecting the book's conclusion. Under realistic
assumptions, renewable sources are unlikely to meet the currently projected
future energy demand. The only viable path to sustainability requires a "limits
to growth" approach, incorporating lower (global average) material living
standards, highly self-sufficient local economies, and little or no economic
Alternative Energy Supply Technologies. The Case of Windpower," P. Street
(Policy Res. in Eng., Sci. & Technol., Univ. Manchester, Oxford Rd.,
Manchester M13 9PL, UK), I. Miles, Energy Policy,
24(5), 413-425, May 1996.
Examines the technological and policy factors affecting the potential for a
shift toward windpower. There are no obvious reasons why windpower cannot form
part of a combination of renewables that will make a significant contribution to
our electrical energy. However, windpowerand other renewablesare
presently providing energy which contributes to the existing structure
of energy distribution. Thus any change in the technical regime is occurring
within the current system of power generation, rather than within the
whole energy system.
the Developing World," I. Chambouleyron (Inst. Fisica Gleb Wataghin, Univ.
Estadual de Campinas-UNICAMP, POB 6165, 13083-970 Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil),
Energy, 21(5), 385-394, May 1996.
Discusses the various uses of photovoltaic systems and the problems
hindering their widespread use. Contrasts the differing approaches to the
dissemination of stand-alone PV power in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. An
official PV policy is essential for successful implementation in developing
countries. Discusses the role of regional centers for solar technologies.
Earth Begins at Home. The Social Construction of Socio-Environmental
Responsibilities," S. Hinchcliffe (Dept. Geog., Univ. Keele, Keele, Staffs
ST5 5BG, UK), Global Environ. Change, 6(1), 53-62, Apr. 1996.
Evaluates the British government's current, five-year old campaign for
energy conservation, Helping the Earth Begins at Home. Looks at the
theoretical context of the campaign's approach, the ideological input to the
production of the campaign, and the public's reaction to it, based on extensive
interviews. Explains how the program's lack of appeal and inability to capture
the interest and imagination of the British public is rooted in its formulation
and context, and discusses general implications for socio-environmental action.
Two items in Energy,
21(4), Apr. 1996:
"Energy-Efficiency: Issues for the Decade," J.M. Hollander (Energy
& Resour. Group, Univ. California, LBL Bldg 73, Berkeley CA 94720), T.R.
Schneider, 273-287. The rate of improvement of energy-use efficiency has slowed,
and energy efficiency continues to be a controversial subject. This review
explores the character and genesis of the debate and assesses the role of market
forces, government intervention, and technological innovation in determining
future progress. Decreasing energy prices have weakened the earlier economic
stimulus to energy efficiency, but a strong drive arises from environmental
concerns. Examines the proposition that innovation stimulated by R&D
investment has been a key ingredient in the development of energy-efficient
technologies, and asserts that the continuing development of a knowledge base to
assure future innovation requires a strong government/private-sector
"Sustainable Urban Energy-Environment Management with Multiple
Objectives," R.K. Bose (Tata Energy Res. Inst., Darbari Seth Block, India
Habitat Ctr., Lodi Rd., New Delhi 110 003, India), G. Anandalingam, 305-318.
Presents a "goal programming" model designed to capture multiple
objectives involved in sustainable energy-environment management in an urban
area. The integrated urban model is used to assist in developing a sectoral
energy plan for the city of New Delhi.
Energy Savings Programs: 'Watt' Are They Worth?" E. Arsenault (GREEN, Dépt.
d'écon., Ste.-Foy PQ G1K 7P4, Can.), J.-T. Bernard, E. Genest-Laplante,
Resour. & Energy Econ., 18(1), 65-81, Mar. 1996.
Hydro-Québec, a large electric utility owned by the provincial
government, is replacing investment in new hydro-electric projects with
investment in energy savings, with $3.9 billion allocated for 1992-2010. This
study is a cost-benefit analysis of the programs, taking into account the
financial criteria underlying electricity rates paid by consumers. Estimates
annual savings of $181 million to $388 million. Consumers are the main
beneficiaries; Hydro-Québec is a marginal beneficiary, but the government
is a net loser.
"A Free Lunch at
Higher CAFE? A Review of Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits," H.
Dowlatabadi (Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh PA 15213), L.B. Lave, A.G.
Russell, Energy Policy, 24(3), 253-264, Mar. 1996.
Pressure has been increasing to raise the corporate average fuel economy
(CAFE) standard for automobiles. This analysis finds that fuel savings from
increasing CAFE are subject to diminishing returns, with little or no effect on
urban air pollution, and a less than proportional reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions. Given current technology, substantial increases in CAFE have
substantial costs, including reduced safety, and do not appear to offer
significant benefits as contended.
Two items in Energy,
21(2), Feb. 1996:
"A Comparative Assessment of the Energy and Carbon Balance of Utilizing
Straw," R.E. Horne (Resources Res. Unit., Sch. Urban & Regional
Studies, Sheffield Hallam Univ., Sheffield S1 1WB, UK), N.D. Mortimer et al.,
77-86. Because burning straw in the field is often banned, a surplus has
developed and interest has grown in using it to generate electricity and/or
heat. This study adopts existing methods to analyze primary energy inputs and CO2
outputs, and uses results to evaluate alternative uses. The displacement of
fossil fuel is a critical factor in the outcome; a straw-fired combined heat and
power plant is found to be the most efficient method of dealing with straw in
areas of intense cereal production.
"Energy Analysis of the Structures of Industrial Organizations,"
T.S. Lough (1213 Island Dr. #103, Ann Arbor MI 48105), 131-139. Reviews energy
analyses, data, research and methods relevant to determine the energy required
just to maintain industrial structures. Examination of six organizations
confirms earlier findings: (1) smaller firms are more energy efficient (in
Btu/employee-year) in maintaining structures than are larger firms; (2)
private-sector firms are more energy-efficient than public ones; (3)
service-producing firms are more efficient than goods-producing firms; and (4) a
public-sector service-provider spent its dollars on goods and services that
require more energy (Btu/dollar) than any of the other five firms.
Guide to Publishers
Index of Abbreviations