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Global Climate Change Digest
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FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1997

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
STORM TRENDS

Item #d97aug26

"Statistical Evidence Links Exceptional 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season to Record Sea Warming," M.A. Saunders (Dept. Space & Clim. Phys., Univ. College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking Surrey RH5 6NT, UK; e-mail: mas@mssl.ucl.ac.uk), A.R. Harris,Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(10), 1255-1258, May 15, 1997.

Most environmental factors in 1995 were favorable for tropical cyclone development, but this study demonstrates that a factor not fully explored before, regional sea surface temperature, was the most significant, based on 45-year statistical regressions.

Item #d97aug27

"Atlantic Hurricanes in the Second Half of the Nineteenth Century," J. Fernández-Partagás, H.F. Diaz (ERL/NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303),Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77(12), 2899-2906, Dec. 1996.

This research was undertaken to improve information on the frequency and intensities of North Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes in the period (1851-1890) prior to the establishment of the modern tropical cyclone monitoring and detection system. Comparison of the total number of storms between that 40-year period and the corresponding one in the twentieth century suggests that the earlier period was relatively less active, even after taking into account the differences in the observational networks.

Item #d97aug28

"Objective Classification of Atlantic Hurricanes," J.B. Elsner (Dept. Meteor., Florida State Univ., Tallahassee FL 32306), G.S. Lehmiller, T.B. Kimberlain,J. Clim., 9(11), 2880-2889, Nov. 1996.

Develops an objective and statistically valid scheme for classifying hurricanes as either tropical-only, or baroclinically-influenced (having some characteristics of middle-latitude storms). Application of the scheme to storm histories shows that a fairly abrupt shift to fewer tropical-only hurricanes occurred around 1960, which is partly explained by recent droughts in Africa.

Item #d97aug29

"Long-Term Trends and Interannual Variability in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific," J.C.L. Chan (Dept. Phys., City Univ. of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon, Hong Kong; e-mail: apjcchan@cityu.edu.hk), J. Shi,Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(20), 2765-2767, Oct. 1, 1996.

The trend in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific has been generally upward since the late 1980s, opposite to the findings of Landsea (1996) for intense Atlantic hurricanes. The combination of both results probably indicates that total global tropical cyclone activity has remained relatively steady. Tropical storms show considerable interannual variability, making any attempt to establish a connection with increasing greenhouse gases difficult.

Item #d97aug30

"Intense Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclone Events: 1899-1991," S.J. Lambert (Can. Ctr. Clim. Modeling & Anal., POB 1700, MS 3339, Victoria BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 101(D16), 21,319-21,325, Sep. 27, 1996.

This survey of intense storms (defined as central pressure less than or equal to 970 millibars) shows little or no trend before about 1970. After 1970, there is a noticeable increase in the number of Pacific and Atlantic events, with a weak out-of-phase relationship and a suggested 25-year periodicity.