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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1997

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TRENDS IN EARTH SYSTEM PROPERTIES

Item #d97aug31

"Trends in the Surface Meridional Temperature Gradient," A.I. Gitelman, J.S. Risbey et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(10), 1243-1246, May 15, 1997. (See Prof. Pubs./Of Gen. Interest, Global Climate Change Digest, July 1997.)

Item #d97aug32

"Aerosols and Climate: Anthropogenic Emissions and Trends for 50 Years," M.E. Wolf, G.M. Hidy, J. Geophys. Res., 102(D10), 11,113-11,121, May 27, 1997. (See Prof. Pubs./Of Gen. Interest, Global Climate Change Digest, July 1997.)

Item #d97aug33

"The 1995 Chicago Heat Wave: How Likely Is a Recurrence?" (See Prof. Pubs./Gen. Interest & Policy, this Global Climate Change Digest issue--August 1997.)

Item #d97aug34

"Ocean Chemistry of the Fossil Fuel CO₂ Signal: the Haline Signal of 'Business as Usual,'" P.G. Brewer (Monterey Bay Aquarium Res. Inst., POB 628, Moss Landing CA 95039; e-mail: brpe@mbari.org), Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(11), 1367-1369, June 1, 1997.

Calculates the projected chemical and physical impacts of increasing atmospheric CO₂ on surface ocean waters. As CO₂ rises through the next century, it will cause an apparent increase in salinity, and reaction with carbonate ion will increase the volume of sea water. Adding to this volume increase is the water released to the atmosphere (and then to the ocean) from fossil fuel combustion. Combined, these factors lead to a sea level rise of about 1.6 mm.

Item #d97aug35

"Analysis of Merged SMMR-SSMI Time Series of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Parameters 1978-1995," E. Bjorgo (Nansen Environ. Ctr., Edvard Greigsvei 3a, N-5037 Bergen-Solheimsviken, Norway; e-mail: Einar.Bjorgo@nrsc.no), O.M. Johannessen, M.W. Miles,Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(4), 413-416, Feb. 15, 1997.

Combining data from two different satellites strengthens earlier assertions of reduced ice cover. Results are consistent with GCM simulations that suggest the retreat of sea ice cover under global warming scenarios.

Item #d97aug36

"Tropospheric Water Vapor Climatology and Trends over North America: 1973-93," R.J. Ross (ARL/NOAA, 1315 East-West Hwy., Silver Spring MD 20910), W.P. Elliott,J. Clim., 9(12), 3561-3674, Dec. 1996.

Annual trends of surface-500 mb precipitable water were generally increasing over the region except over northeastern Canada. Annual trends in dew point were generally of the same sign, but larger in magnitude. Seasonal trends of precipitable water varied spatially more than the annual trends and fewer were statistically significant.

Item #d97aug37

"Long-Term Variability in the Low-Level Inversion Layer over the Arctic Ocean," J.D.W. Kahl (Dept. Geosci., Univ. Wisconsin, POB 413, Milwaukee WI 53201; e-mail: kahl@csd.uwm.edu), D.A. Martinez, N.A. Zaitzeva,Intl. J. Climatol., 16(11), 1297-1313, Nov. 1996.

Examination of nearly 30,000 Arctic Ocean radiosonde and dropsonde temperature profiles for the period 1950-1990 indicates a strengthening of the thermal stability of the inversion layer in fall and winter. This strengthening is in agreement with a recent study describing Arctic Ocean temperature trends, but is in contrast to GCM predictions of polar amplification of greenhouse warming.

Item #d97aug38

"North Pole Ice Thickness and Association with Ice Motion History 1977-1992," T.L. Shy (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Univ. Illinois, 105 S. Gregory Ave., Urbana IL 61801; e-mail: shy@atmos.uiuc.edu), J.E. Walsh,Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(21), 2975-2978, Oct. 15, 1996.

Ice drafts measured by U.S. Navy submarine sonar, combined with Arctic Ocean drifting buoy data, show no systematic decrease in ice thickness over the 15-year period.

Item #d97aug39

"Historical Snow Cover Variability in the Great Plains Region of the USA: 1910 Through to 1993," M.G. Hughes (Dept. Geog., Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick NJ 08903; e-mail: mghughes@gandalf-rutgers.edu), D.A. Robinson,Intl. J. Climatol., 16(9), 1005-1018, Sep. 1996.

Considerable annual and decadal variations of snow cover in this region are embedded in a trend toward greater seasonal snow cover, from 29 days in the early part of the century to 38 days in recent decades. The reliance on snow cover for hydrological and agricultural purposes in the Great Plains, the sensitivity of the near-surface climate to snow cover conditions there, and projected warming and drying under greenhouse warming necessitate further study of snow cover variability there.

Item #d97aug40

"Ice Core Record of Fatty Acids over the Past 450 Years in Greenland," K. Kawamura (Inst. of Low Temp. Sci., Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo 060, Japan; e-mail: kawamura@soya.lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp), I. Suzuki et al.,Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(19), 2665-2668, Sep. 15, 1996.

Total concentrations of fatty acids (which originate from terrestrial higher plant waxes, soil particles and marine organisms) were relatively constant in the 16th to 19th centuries. However, they significantly increased in the 20th century with maxima in the 1930s-1950s and 1980s, suggesting an enhanced sea-to-air emission of organic matter and subsequent transport over Greenland. The increased concentrations are consistent with increased Arctic temperature.

Item #d97aug41

"Near-Surface Wind over the Global Ocean 1949-1988," M.N. Ward (CIMMS, Univ. Oklahoma, 100 E. Boyd, Rm. 1242, Norman OK 73019), B.J. Hoskins,J. Clim., 9(8), 1877-1895, Aug. 1996.

Near-surface wind over the ocean is a key climate variable, but the reliability of ship reports now held in large databases is controversial, particularly the reality of an upward trend in reported wind strength since the 1940s. This paper uses an improved method for deriving near-surface wind from sea level pressure data, and finds no globally averaged trend in circulation strength, although there are regional patterns of both upward and downward trends.

Item #d97aug42

"Nonlinear Dynamics and the Great Salt Lake: A Predictable Indicator of Regional Climate," H.D.I. Abarbanel (Scripps Inst. Oceanog., Mail Code 0402, La Jolla CA 92093), U. Lall et al.,Energy, 21(7-8), 655-665, July-Aug. 1996.

The Great Salt Lake drains 90,000 square kilometers, acting as a spatial filter of climatic details. This study used methods from nonlinear dynamics to examine a record of measurements of lake volume maintained since 1847, concluding that it is a record of the natural variation of climate. The analysis shows that if there is any human influence on climate in the region, its effect is not measurable on such large-scale integrated observations.

Item #d97aug43

"Long-Term Trends of Some Characteristics of the Earth's Atmosphere: I. Experimental Results," G.V. Givishvili (Inst. Terrestrial Magnetism, Russian Acad. Sci., Troitsk, Moscow oblast, 142092 Russia), L.N. Leschenko et al., Izvestiya Atmos. & Ocean Phys.,32(3), 303-312, 1996. In English.

Reviews trends of the following parameters, estimated by various groups using various methods, over the last 3-5 decades: stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, hydroxyl emission and rotational temperature in the mesopause, atomic oxygen emission in the thermosphere, and electron density in the E and F2 region of the ionosphere. Results point to global changes in the middle and upper atmosphere.

Item #d97aug44

"A Long-Term Trend in Sea Ice Thickness Variation in the Arctic Basin," A.P. Nagurnyi (Russian Arctic & Antarctic Res. Inst.),Russian Meteor. & Hydrol., No. 6, 39-42, 1995.

Uses the linear theory of free oscillations of sea ice as a flexible plate floating in liquid to determine the effective thickness of sea ice from measurements of its resonance oscillation frequency. Effective ice thickness decreased 12-14 cm from 1970 to 1992, which is 3-4% of the mean value.