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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1997

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
OZONE DEPLETION: POLICY

Item #d97jan38

"Recovery of Antarctic Ozone Hole," D.J. Hofmann (CMDL/NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303; e-mail: dhofmann@cmdl.noaa.gov), Nature, 384(6606), 222-223, Nov. 21, 1996.

Detection of the first signs of healing of the ozone layer is important because it will provide verification of the research that prompted the ban of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. This detection may occur early in the next century, and likely will first be observed over Antarctica because springtime depletion there is large compared to natural variability. Owing to their lower natural variability, suitable early ozone-healing indicators will probably be the ozone-loss rate, and the amount of ozone remaining in the 12-20 km altitude interval on Sep. 15 each year.

Item #d97jan39

"Estimates of Ozone Depletion and Skin Cancer Incidence to Examine the Vienna Convention Achievements," H. Slaper (Lab. Radiation Res., Natl. Inst. Public Health & Environ. Protect.-RIVM, POB 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), G.J.M. Velders et al., Nature, 384(6606), 256-258, Nov. 21, 1996.

Presents a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks, which is used to compare the effects of a "no restrictions" scenario with two restrictive scenarios proposed through the Montreal Protocol and the stricter Copenhagen amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios would produce, respectively, a quadrupling and doubling of skin cancers by 2100. The Copenhagen amendments would produce a peak relative increase of about 10% by 2060.

Item #d97jan40

"International Trade and International Technology Transfer to Eliminate Ozone-Depleting Substances," K.R. Hope Sr. (United Nations, Botswana), Intl. Environ. Affairs, 8(1), 32-40, Winter 1996.

Examines the mutually reinforcing interdependence of international trade and international technology transfer for ozone protection. Discusses how this concept is embodied in sustainable development, and how it applies to specific trade agreements such as NAFTA, and the creation of the World Trade Organization.