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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
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FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 5, MAY 1997

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: ATMOSPHERIC BEHAVIOR

Item #d97may35

"The Effect of Greenhouse SSTs on ENSO Simulations with an AGCM," I.N. Smith (Div. Atmos. Res., CSIRO, PMB 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), M. Dix, R.J. Allan, J. Clim., 10(2), 342-352, Feb. 1997.

Model experiments with 2 X CO₂ and prescribed sea surface temperatures suggest that increased static stability may dampen the effects of any nonlinear increase in evaporation and that any changes in the behavior of ENSO due to predicted temperature increases in the tropics may not be significant.

Item #d97may36

"Simulated ENSO in a Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model: Multidecadal Amplitude Modulation and CO₂ Sensitivity," T.R. Knutson (NOAA/GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542; e-mail: tk@gfdl.gov), S. Manabe, D. Gu, ibid., 10(1), 138-161, Jan. 1997.

Results suggest that the impact of increased CO₂ on ENSO is unlikely to be clearly distinguishable from climatic variability in the near future-unless ENSO is substantially more sensitive to increased CO₂ than indicated in the present study.

Item #d97may37

"Changes in Large-Scale Static Stability and Implications for Global Warming," P.T. Combs (NASA Goddard Inst. Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), World Resource Review, 8(4), 419-439, Dec. 1996.

Examined atmospheric temperature soundings through a period of years corresponding to a mean temperature increase. The effect of the warming trend on the temperature profile resulted in a 10% mean increase in the probability of precipitation from air mass thunderstorms. The importance of the study lies not in detection of anthropogenic climate change, but in showing how precipitation (and drought) tendencies are affected by warming (regardless of its cause). Discusses extensions of the research.

Item #d97may38

"Scenarios of Extreme Temperature Events," D. Wagner (Meteor. Inst., Humboldt Univ., Müggelseedamm 256-258, 12587 Berlin, Ger.), Clim. Change, 33(3), 385-407, July 1996.

Develops a statistical model of the likelihood of extreme temperature events for the city of Berlin, verifies it with data, and demonstrates that the probability is more sensitive to changes in the variability of climate than to changes in its average. Applied to IPCC scenario A, it predicts a greater frequency of hot days in summer, and fewer cold days in winter.

Item #d97may39

"A 30,000 Record of Extreme Floods in Tropical Australia from Relict Plunge-Pool Deposits: Implications for Future Climate Change," J.F. Nott (Dept. Tropical Environ. Studies, J. Cook Univ. of N. Queensland, POB 6811, Cairns, Australia), D.M. Price, E.A. Bryant, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(4), 379-382, Feb. 15, 1996.

Sediments show evidence of extreme flood events during the early to mid-Holocene and immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum, indicating that the Australian summer monsoon was more intense. If future climate is characterized by conditions similar to either of these periods, a return to this extreme discharge regime is likely.

Item #d97may40

"Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the Next 50 Years Lead to Higher Frequency and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes?" L. Bengtsson (Max Planck Inst. Meteor., Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Ger.), Tellus, 48A(1), 57-73, Jan. 1996.

Combines a high resolution atmospheric model with sea surface temperature anomalies generated by a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model simulating transient climate change. At doubled CO₂, the global distribution of storms is unchanged, but the number is much reduced, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. For most tropical storm regions, reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle are indicated.

Item #d97may41

"The Australian Summer Monsoon: CSIRO9 GCM Simulations for 1 X CO₂ and 2 X CO₂ Conditions," R. Suppiah (Div. Atmos. Res., CSIRO, PMB 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), Global & Planetary Change, 11(3), 95-109, Dec. 1995.

In the doubled CO₂ scenario, the Australian monsoon circulation is strengthened and precipitation is increased by about 20%, but interannual variability and the position of the monsoon boundary is unchanged.

Item #d97may42

"Effect of Transient Increase in Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols on Monsoon Climate," M. Lal (Ctr. Atmos. Sci., Indian Inst. Technol., New Delhi 110 016, India), U. Cubasch et al., Current Sci., 69(9), 752-763, Nov. 10, 1995.

Model experiments performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, indicate that when sulfate aerosols are included in the transient climate simulation, the land of the Indian subcontinent warms less than the surrounding ocean, leading to a weakening of pressure gradient and a decline in monsoon rainfall.