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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1998

NEWS...
IEA Energy-Use Projections

Item #d98dec44

Reuters on Dec. 4 carried a report from the International Energy Agency that world energy demand and greenhouse-gas emissions will increase 65 to 70% during the next 20 years if nations do not adopt major policy changes. Two-thirds of those increases would occur in China and other developing countries. The projections to 2020 indicate that

• fossil fuels will meet 95% of additional global energy demand
• the fossil-fuel mix will change only marginally
• output from nuclear power plants will remain stable
• hydropower growth will be limited by the lack of good sites and by environmental considerations
• renewable energy sources will represent less than 1% of world electricity generation
• world oil production from conventional sources would peak between 2010 and 2020
• no shortage of liquid fuels would occur because reserves of unconventional oil are large

Policies suggested by the agency include developing less costly nuclear power plants, finding long-term solutions for radioactive-waste disposal, and reducing the unit costs of renewable fuels like wind and biomass.