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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1998

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
DETECTING HUMAN INFLUENCE

Item #d98jun13

"Patterns and Mechanisms of Twentieth Century Climate Change," A. Clement (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observ., Rte. 9W, Palisades NY 10964), M. Cane, R. Seager, World Resource Review, 10(2), 161-185, June 1998.

Proposes a two-part mechanism whereby the tropical ocean responds to uniform heating, producing a change in sea surface temperature patterns consistent with those observed over the 20th century. This mechanism may explain the discrepancy between simulated and observed climate change.

Item #d98jun14

"Detecting Climate Signals in the Surface Temperature Record," G.R. North, M.J. Stevens (UCAR, GPS/MET, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), J. Clim., 11(4), 563-577, Apr. 1998.

Applies optimal signal detection theory to 100 years of surface temperature data to determine climatic response to four radiative forcings: solar variability, volcanic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and anthropogenic aerosols. Findings are viewed as powerful evidence of anthropogenically induced climate change.

Item #d98jun15

"Solar Irradiance Since 1874 Revisited," S.K. Solanki (Inst. Astronomy, ETH-Zentrum, CH-8092 Zürich, Switz.; e-mail: solanki@astro.phys.ethz.ch), M. Fligge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(3), 341-344, Feb. 1, 1998.

Reconstructs the solar irradiance since 1874 employing an evolved version of previously published models and improved sunspot and facular data. Results suggest that the air temperature increase since 1975 reflects the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, or non-solar sources of natural variability.

Item #d98jun16

"Does the Correlation Between Solar Cycle Lengths and Northern Hemisphere Land Temperatures Rule Out Any Significant Global Warming?" P. Laut (Technical Univ. Denmark, DK-2800 Lyngby, Den.), J. Gundermann, J. Atmos. & Solar-Terrestrial Phys., 60(1), 1-3, 1998.

Correlations of solar data with a couple of artificial temperature time series show that the striking correlation that has been observed between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source.

Item #d98jun17

"A Bayesian Statistical Analysis of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect," R.S.J. Tol (Inst. Environ. Studies, Vrije Univ., De Boelelaan 1115, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Neth.), A.F. de Vos, Clim. Change, 38(1), 87-112, Jan. 1998.

Uses a Bayesian analysis, which combines predictions of several experts with observations, and other approaches to analyze records of global mean surface air temperature. Concludes that the enhanced greenhouse effect is a plausible explanation for the observed global warming over the period 1870-1991.

Item #d98jun18

"Influences of Anthropogenic and Oceanic Forcing on Recent Climate Change," C.K. Folland (Hadley Ctr., Meteor. Off., London Rd., Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK; e-mail: ckfolland@meto.gov.uk), D.M.H. Sexton et al, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(3), 353-356, Feb. 1, 1997.

Reports a new approach to climate change detection and attribution based on an atmospheric general circulation model forced with observed sea surface temperatures, rather than the traditional approach using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Simulations strongly indicate a discernible anthropogenic effect on the annual mean thermal structure of the atmosphere, the first time this has been shown in the presence of observed variations in sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent.

Item #d98jun19

"The Spectral Signature of Global Warming," A. Slingo (Hadley Ctr., Meteor. Off., London Rd., Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ, UK), M.J. Webb, Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 123(538, Pt. B), 293-307, Jan. 1997.

Presents simulations of the change in the spectrum of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) associated with global warming produced by increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Results suggest that spectral measurements of the OLR from space could provide a valuable test of climate-model projections of global warming and determination of the water-vapor feedback.