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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 4, APRIL-MAY 1998

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
OF GENERAL INTEREST

Item #d98may1

"Changing Waves and Storms [WASA] in the Northeast Atlantic?" The WASA Group, Attn.: H. von Storch., Inst. Hydrophys., GKSS Res. Ctr., POB 21502, Geesthacht, Ger.; e-mail: storch@gkss.de),Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79(5), 741-760, May 1998.

Describes WASA, a European project set up to verify or disprove the hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas in this century. Concludes that the storm and wave climate in most of the region shows significant decadal variations; it has roughened in recent decades, but present intensity seems comparable to that at the beginning of the century. Part of the variability is related to the North Atlantic oscillation.

Item #d98may2

Two related items in Nature, 392(6676), Apr. 9, 1998:

"A Greenhouse Warming Connection," R.J. Salawitch (Jet Propulsion Lab., 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena CA 91109; e-mail: rjs@caesar.jpl.nasa.gov), 561-562. Discusses the implications of the following paper and its tentative but worrisome conclusion.

"Increased Polar Stratospheric Ozone Losses and Delayed Eventual Recovery Owing to Increased Greenhouse-Gas Concentrations," D.T. Shindell (NASA Goddard Inst. Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025; e-mail: dshindell@giss.nasa.gov), D. Rind, P. Lonergan, 589-592. Greenhouse gases warm the Earth's surface but cool the stratosphere, and the chemical reactions responsible for ozone depletion are extremely sensitive to temperature. Experiments with a global climate model suggest that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations result in a more stable Arctic polar vortex, favorable for the cold temperatures that encourage ozone loss. Projects that Arctic losses will peak between 2010 and 2019, roughly a decade after the maximum in stratospheric chlorine abundance. Also discusses similar effects in the Antarctic.

Item #d98may3

"Who Will Fuel China?" T.E. Drennen (Sandia Natl. Labs., Albuquerque NM 87185; e-mail: tedrenn@sandia.gov), J.D. Erickson,Science, 279(5356), 1483, Mar. 6, 1998.

Any climate protection resulting from the Kyoto treaty will depend on the future of Chinese emissions. Limiting global emissions will require a sustained international commitment to improve global energy efficiency and develop non-carbon emitting technologies. Committing to the Kyoto targets for developed countries is the first step toward eliciting the cooperation of developing countries.

Item #d98may4

"Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change," J.A. Patz (John Hopkins Sch. Hygiene & Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Rm. 7041, Baltimore MD 21205), W.J.M. Martens et al.,Environ. Health Perspectives, 106(3), 147-153, Mar. 1998.

Uses projections of temperature change from three GCMs to estimate changes in mosquito density and transmission of dengue fever. Climate change will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitos, especially in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude, and may increase hemorrhagic dengue in endemic locations.

Item #d98may5

"Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet," B.H. Davis (Dept. Electrical Eng., Univ. Missouri, 5605 Troost Ave., Kansas City MO 64110), C.A. Kluever, B.J. Haines,Science, 279(5359), 2086-2088, Mar. 27, 1998.

Contrary to an earlier analysis, Seasat and Geosat altimeter measurements show that the Greenland ice sheet is growing at less than 2 cm per year, a rate too slow to determine if the sheet is undergoing a long-term change due to a warmer global climate.

Item #d98may6

"Climate Change and Insurance: A Critical Appraisal," R.S.J. Tol (Inst. Environ. Studies, Vrije Univ., De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV, Amsterdam, Neth.),Energy Policy, 26(3), 257-262, Feb. 1998.

Discusses several issues that relate these two topics. The impact of climate change on the profitability of the commercial insurance sector is not likely to be severe, because insurance companies are capable of shifting changed risks to the insured, provided they are informed of the consequences of climate change in a timely manner.

Item #d98may7

"Developing Countries Are Combating Climate Change — Actions in Developing Countries That Slow Growth in Carbon Emissions," W.V. Reid (World Resour. Inst., 1709 New York Ave. NW, Washington DC 20006), J. Goldemberg,Energy Policy, 26(3), 233-237, Feb. 1998.

Policy changes in developing countries since the 1992 signing of the climate convention may have reduced their carbon emissions more than the industrialized countries have. A major reason is energy price reforms that have led to substantial gains in production and end-use efficiency.