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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 4, APRIL-MAY 1998

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
Impacts And Adaptation: Impacts on Agriculture

Item #d98may21

"An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Economy of Egypt," D.N. Yates (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), K.M. Strzepek,Clim. Change, 38(3), 261-287, Mar. 1998.

Analysis using a quadratic sector programming model supports the hypothesis that smaller food importing countries are at greater risk to climate change. Impacts could have as much to do with changes in world markets as with changes in local and regional biophysical systems and shifts in the national agricultural economy.

Item #d98may22

"Impacts of a GHG-Induced Climate Change on Crop Yields: Effects of Acceleration in Maturation Moisture Stress and Optimal Temperature," B. Singh (Dépt. Géog., Univ. Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succursale Centre-ville, Montréal PQ H3C 3J7, Can.), M. el Maayar et al.,Clim. Change, 38(1), 51-86, Jan. 1998.

Climate change model predictions are fed into a crop model to examine impacts on various crop types in southern Quebec. Depending on the agricultural zone and crop type, yields may increase (corn and sorghum by 20%) or decrease (wheat and soybean by 20-30%).

Item #d98may23

"Mitigation Strategies and Unforeseen Consequences: A Systematic Assessment of the Adaptation of Upper Midwest Agriculture to Future Climate Change," O.C. Doering (Dept. Agric. Econ., Purdue Univ., 1145 Krannert Bldg., W. Lafayette IN 47907), M. Habeck et al.,World Resource Review, 9(4), 447-459, Dec. 1997.

Uses a crop production model in an interactive fashion with a farm decision model to address a number of questions concerning future crop management and production.

Item #d98may24

Special Section: Climatic Change Effects on Mediterranean Agriculture, Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1(3), 1997.

"Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agriculture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions: An Introductory Essay," C. Rosenzweig (Ctr. Clim. Systems Res., NASA Goddard Inst. Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), F.N. Tubiello, 219-232.

"Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future," H.M. El-Shaer,..A. Iglesias (Div. Planificación Hidrológica, INTECSA, Orense 70, 28020 Madrid, Spain) et al., 233-250.

"Impact of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Central and Northern Greece: A Simulation Study with Ceres-Maize," G. Kapetanaki (Natl. Agric. Res. Foundation, Inst. for Soils Classification and Mapping, Larissa, Greece), C. Rosenzweig, 251-271.

"Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change," A. Iglesias (address above), M.I. Minguez, 273-288.

Item #d98may25

"Modelling Estimation on the Potential Impacts of Global Warming on Rice Production in China," W. Futang (Chinese Acad. Meteor. Sci., Baishiqiao Rd. No. 46, Beijing 100081, China), Z. Yu, Q. Guowang,World Resource Review, 9(3), 317-323, 1997.

Uses two rice growth models combined with global warming scenarios from several GCMs to determine that rice production could decrease by up to 14% (depending on season). The positive effect of increased CO₂ does not compensate for the adverse effects of temperature change.

Item #d98may26

"The Welfare Bias from Omitting Climatic Variability in Economic Studies of Global Warming," M.G. Dalton (Dept. Econ., Stanford Univ., Stanford CA 94305),J. Environ. Econ. & Mgmt., 33(3), 221-239, July 1997.

Analyzes the effect of variability on estimates of impacts on agriculture, focusing on corn production. Losses from climate change are predicted to be greater with variability than without it, and estimates are more sensitive to the rate of change. Impacts depend on the scope of adaptation, and surprisingly, systems that adapt can be affected more than those that do not.

Item #d98may27

"A Comparison of Scenarios for the Effect of Global Climate Change on Cotton Growth and Yield," K.R. Reddy (Dept. Plant & Soil Sci., Box 9555, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State MS 39762; e-mail: krreddy@ra.msstate.edu), H.F. Hodges, J.M. McKinion),Aust. J. Plant Physiol., 24(6), 707-713, 1997.

Field experiments in Mississippi at ambient and twice ambient CO₂ and five temperatures showed that warming is detrimental to boll retention and overall cotton production, even though vegetative growth of the plant is increased by CO₂. If global warming occurs as predicted, food and fiber production in such warm, humid environments may be more limited to vegetative structures and the animals that consume vegetative structures.

Item #d98may28

"Climate Change, Agriculture and Wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Policy," E.K. Hartig (Ctr. Clim. Systems Res., Columbia Univ., New York, N.Y.), O. Grozev, C. Rosenzweig),Clim. Change, 36(1-2), 107-121, May-June 1997.

Scenarios analyzed under the U.S. Country Studies Program show that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Reviews precautionary management options such as buffer areas, promotion of sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined areas.

Item #d98may29

"Sensitivity of Crop Yield and Water Use to Change in a Range of Climatic Factors and CO₂ Concentrations: A Simulation Study Applying EPIC to the Central USA," R.A. Brown (Battelle Pacific Northwest Natl. Lab., Washington DC 20024), J.H. Rosenberg, Agric. & Forest Meteor., 83(3-4), 171-203, Feb. 1997.

The impact on yields and water use in corn, soybean, winter wheat and sorghum was studied over a range of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, and CO₂. Results demonstrate the need to consider all such variables in future impact studies.