February 28, 2007
GCRIO Program Overview
Our extensive collection of documents.
Archives of the
Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 4, APRIL-MAY 1998
Impacts And Adaptation: Impacts on Forests, Ecosystems, & Species
Warming, Wildfire Hazard, and Wildfire Occurrence in Coastal Eastern Spain," J.
Pi˝ol (Centre de Recerca Ecol˛gica i Aplicacions Forestals, Univ. Aut˛noma de
Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain), J. Terradas, F. Lloret,Clim. Change, 38(3),
345-357, Mar. 1998.
Two separate wildfire hazard indices calculated for the period 1941 to 1994 increase in
mean value and in the number of very high risk days. Fire statistics for 1968 to 1994 are
correlated with these indices. Results support a relationship between wildfires and
Global Warming on the Distribution and Survival of the Gelada Baboon: A Modelling
Approach," R.I.M. Dunbar (Population Biol. Res. Group, Sch. Life Sci., Nicholson
Bldg., Univ. Liverpool, POB 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK),Global Change Biology, 4(3),
293-304, Mar. 1998.
A systems model of the socio-ecology of the gelada, a primate found in the Ethiopian
highlands that is unusually sensitive to ambient temperature, shows that 7░C warming
would threaten the survival of the species by confining it to a small number of isolated
mountain peaks. Concomitant changes in agriculture would further constrain habitat.
and Ecosystem Production and Carbon Stocks of Terrestrial Ecosystems and Their Responses
to Climate Change," M. Cao (Dept. Animal & Plant Sci., Univ. Sheffield, Sheffield
S10 2TN, UK; e-mail: email@example.com), F.I. Woodward,Global Change Biology, 4(2),
185-198, Feb. 1998.
Describes a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to
climatic variation, based on the processes of photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter
production and soil organic carbon decomposition. Predicts a strong enhancement in net
primary production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems.
Change in the North Atlantic," P.C. Reid (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean
Sci., The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK; e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org), M.
Edwards et al.,Nature, 391(6667), 546, Feb. 5, 1998.
Observations provide the first marine surface time-series evidence for a vegetation
response to what seems to be climatic forcing. This has implications for CO2
fluxes and the productivity of the North Atlantic.
Mistakes When Predicting Shifts in Species Range in Response to Global Warming," A.J.
Davis (Ecol. & Evolution Group, Biol. Dept., The University, Leeds, Yorkshire LS2 9JT,
UK), L.S. Jenkinson et al.,Nature, 391(6669), 783-786, Feb. 19, 1998.
Discusses problems with the "climate envelope" approach typically used to
predict biotic responses to climate change, by using microcosm experiments on simple but
realistic assemblages to show how misleading that approach can be. Dispersal and
interactions, important elements of population dynamics, must be included.
Paradox of Rapid Plant Migration: Dispersal Theory and Interpretation of Paleoecological
Records," J.S. Clark (Dept. Botany, Duke Univ., Durham NC 27708), C. Fastie et al.,BioScience,
48(1), 13-24, Jan. 1998.
Describes recent views on the nature of plant species migration, based on two workshops
held in 1996. (See Research News, this Global Climate Change Digest issue--April-May
and Egg-Laying Trends," R.H.. McCleery (Grey Inst. Field Ornithol., Dept. Zoology,
Univ. Oxford, S. Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3PS, UK), C.M. Perrins (e-mail:
email@example.com),Nature, 391(6662), 30-31, Jan. 1, 1998.
Field observations provide partial support for the theory that laying dates for many
British birds have become earlier between 1971 and 1995.
Dynamic Vegetation Response to Rapid Climate Change Using Bioclimatic
Classification," A.P. Kirilenko (U.S. EPA NHEERL WED, 200 SW 35th St., Corvallis OR
97333), A.M. Solomon,Clim. Change, 38(1), 15-49, Jan. 1998.
Develops a model to study the potential impact on terrestrial carbon stocks of
predicted climate shifts that treats vegetative migration and succession as dynamic
variables. It predicts new temperate and boreal biomes, not found on the landscape today,
which increase rapidly in area during the first 100 years of simulated response. Their
presence for several centuries adds uncertainty in calculating future terrestrial carbon
Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests," B.J. Stocks
(Canadian Forest Service, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Can.), M.A. Fosberg et al.,Clim.
Change, 38(1), 1-13, Jan. 1998.
Scenarios generated by four GCMs all indicate large increases in the areal extent of
extreme fire danger in both countries under doubled CO2. More fire activity in
the future is a virtual uncertainty; the likely response will be more intensive protection
of smaller, high-value areas, and a return to natural fire regimes over larger areas of
both Canada and Russia, with resultant significant impacts on the carbon budget.
of Water Table Manipulation and Elevated Temperature on the Net CO2 Flux of Wet
Sedge Tundra Ecosystems," W.C. Oechel (Global Change Res. Group, Dept. Biol., San
Diego State Univ., San Diego CA 92182; e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org), G.L. Vourlitis
et al., Global Change Biology, 4(1), 77-90, Jan. 1998.
Field experiments suggest that many currently saturated or nearly saturated wet sedge
ecosystems of the North slope of Alaska may become significant sources of CO2
if climate change predictions are realized. There is ample evidence that this may already
be occurring in arctic Alaska.
Climate Change: Assessing the Sensitivity of Selected Species to Simulated Doubling of
Atmospheric CO2," K.M. Johnston, O.J. Schmitz (Sch. Forestry, Yale Univ.,
370 Prospect St., New Haven CT 06511; e-mail: email@example.com), Global
Change Biology, 3(6), 531-544, Dec. 1997.
Computer simulations for elk, deer, ground squirrel and chipmunk show altered thermal
conditions will have little effect on the species' distributions. They are more likely to
be influenced by vegetation changes.
and Climate Change: The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX)," G.H.R. Henry (Dept.
Geog., Univ. British Columbia, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z2, Can.; e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org),
U. Molau,Global Change Biology, 3(Suppl. 1), 1-9, Dec. 1997.
Overviews papers in a special issue of the journal from the Sixth ITEX Workshop
(Ottawa, April 1995), which compare short-term responses (1-3 years) of common species to
climate variations and manipulations at ITEX sites. All species investigated responded to
the temperature increase, but responses were individualistic and there were no general
patterns for functional types or phenology classes.
Sensitivity and Adaptation of Ecosystems to the Disturbances: A Case Study in Northeastern
Estonia," J.-M. Punning (Inst. Ecol., Kevade 2, Tallinn EE-0001, Estonia) T. Toff et
al.,Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2(1), 1-17,
Paleological reconstruction, using data from sediments of a northeast Estonian lake,
indicate the high ability of the studied ecosystem to adapt to the impact of natural fires
in a climatic environment comparable to that predicted for the future.
Increases Oceanic Primary Production," M. Hein (Freshwater Biol. Lab., Univ.
Copenhagen, Helsingorsgade 51, DK-3400 Hillerod, Denmark; e-mail:
email@example.com), Nature, 388(6642), 526-527, Aug. 7, 1997.
Results from short-term experiments in the nutrient-poor central Atlantic Ocean show
small but significant stimulation (15-19%) of primary production in response to the
simulated CO2 rise in surface waters over the next 100-200 years.
Response to Disturbance and Anthropogenic Stress: Rethinking the 1938 Hurricane and the
Impact of Physical Disturbance vs. Chemical and Climate Stress on Forest Ecosystems,"
D.R. Foster (Harvard Forest, Harvard Univ., Petersham MA 01366), J.D. Aber et al.,BioScience,
47(7), 437-445, July-Aug. 1997.
While the site of this hurricane blowdown in southern New England exhibits severe
physical disturbance, internal processes have not been altered significantly. In contrast,
plots subjected to chronic nitrogen deposition and soil warming appear healthy, but subtle
measures of ecosystem function suggest serious imbalances, with possible ecological
implications for the future.
Climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region and Its Potential Impact on
Vegetation," P.J. Bartlein (Dept. Geog., Univ. Oregon, Eugene OR 97403; e-mail:
firstname.lastname@example.org), C. Whitlock, S.L. Shafer,Conserv. Biol., 11(3),
782-792, June 1997.
Illustrates the potential impact on distributions of selected tree taxa, taking account
of the mountainous character of the region by interpolating coarse GCM output to a fine
mesh. The new communities projected have no analog in present-day vegetation. Although the
results support conservation strategies that include habitat connectivity, the magnitude
of the changes may exceed the ability of species to adjust their ranges. This study also
calls into question the adequacy of current management objectives.
Effects on the Acidity of Remote Alpine Lakes," S. Sommaruga-W÷grath,..R. Psenner
(Inst. Zool. & Limnol., Univ. Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; e-mail:
email@example.com),Nature, 387(6628), 64-67, May 1, 1997.
A study of 57 remote, high-elevation lakes in the Alps shows that between 1985 and
1995, lake pH and the concentrations of sulfate, base cations and silica have increased,
contrary to trends in atmospheric input. Proposes that the changes likely result from 1░C
increase in air temperature since 1985, and concludes that climate warming is a
determining factor for water chemistry in remote alpine lakes.
of Marine Aerosol Deposition Owing to Increased Storm Frequency: A Cause of Forest Decline
in Southern Sweden?" M.E.R. Gustafsson (Earth Sci. Ctr., Dept. Phys. Geog., G÷teborg
Univ., S-413 81 G÷teborg, Swed.),Agric. & Forest Meteor., 84(1-2),
169-177, Mar. 1997.
Investigates the possibility that the increased frequency of gales since the 1960s,
possibly related to changing climate, is involved in forest decline observed over a
Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests in the State of Brandenburg, Germany," M.
Lindner (Inst. for Clim. Impact Res., POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Ger.; e-mail:
firstname.lastname@example.org), H. Bugmann et al.,Agric. & Forest Meteor., 84(1-2),
123-135, Mar. 1997.
This study applies two forest gap models in three climate scenarios and draws various
conclusions regarding impacts on the region. Climate change could have considerable
consequences for future competitive relationships between species in the study area.
Dependency of the Surface Climate Change Signal: A Model Study," F. Giorgi (NCAR, POB
3000, Boulder CO 80307; e-mail: email@example.com), J.W. Hurrell et al.,J. Clim.,
10(2), 288-296, Feb. 1997.
Presents results from a present-day and a doubled CO2 experiment over the
European Alpine region using a nested regional climate model. The simulated temperature
change signal shows a substantial elevation dependency, consistent with some observed
temperature trends in the region, suggesting that high elevation temperature changes could
be used as an early detection tool for global warming.
"The Role of
DOC in Protecting Freshwaters Subjected to Climatic Warming and Acidification from UV
Exposure," D.W. Schindler (Dept. Biol. Sci., Univ. Alberta, Edmonton AB T6G 2E9,
Can.), P.J. Curtis,Biogeochem., 36(1), 1-8, Jan. 1997.
Summarizes eight other papers in a special issue of this journal from a 1994 workshop
on this topic.
Response to Climate Change: Do Simulations Predict Unrealistic Dieback?" C. Loehle
(Environ. Res. Div., Argonne Natl. Lab., 9700 S. Cass Ave., Argonne IL 60439),J.
Forestry, pp. 13-15, Sep. 1996.
Because most current forest growth models, as a class tend to predict severe impacts on
forests from climate change, they are thought to be probably correct despite
uncertainties. This paper points out several weaknesses in the models, and argues that
they tend to predict forest dieback where none is likely and predict range shrinkages over
decades that could actually take centuries or even millenia. Reducing fossil fuel
emissions on the basis of such questionable predictions is hazardous.
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