February 28, 2007
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Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 4, APRIL-MAY 1998
Impacts And Adaptation: Impacts on Storms
"A GCM Study of the Impact of Greenhouse Gas Increase on the
Frequency of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones," J.-F. Royer (Météo
France/CNRM, 42 Av. G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, France), F. Chauvin
et al.,Clim. Change, 38(3), 307-343, Mar. 1998.
Applies the Yearly Genesis Parameter (YGP) proposed by Gray to
simulations with a French GCM. Proposes a modification to the method of
calculating the YGP that has little effect on storm frequencies predicted
for the present climate, but for doubled CO2 predicts a more
limited increase in storm genesis in the Northern Hemisphere, and a small
reduction in the Southern Hemisphere.
"Simulated Increase of Hurricane Intensities in a CO2-Warmed
Climate," T.R. Knutson (NOAA/GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542;
e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org), R.E. Tuleya, Y. Kurihara, Science, 279(5353),
1018-1020, Feb. 13, 1998.
Applies a regional, high-resolution hurricane prediction model to case
studies of 51 western Pacific storms in the present climate, and compares
results under high-CO2 conditions. For a sea surface
temperature warming of about 2.2°C, the simulations yielded
hurricanes that were more intense by 3-7 meters per second (5-12%) in wind
"Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment,"
A. Henderson-Sellers (Chancellory/R&D, Roy. Melbourne Inst. Technol.,
POB 71, Bundoora VIC 3083, Australia; e-mail: email@example.com), H. Zhang
et al.,Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79(1), 19-38, Jan. 1998.
Gives a detailed update of projected trends in tropical cyclones, based
on thermodynamic estimation of the "maximum potential intensities"
(MPI). Recent studies indicate that the MPI of cyclones will remain the
same or undergo a modest increase of up to 10-20%. This predicted change
is small compared with observed natural variations, and known omitted
factors could operate to mitigate this intensification. Contrary to
popular belief, the broad geographic regions affected by tropical cyclones
is not expected to change significantly.
"The Impact of Current and Possibly Future Sea Surface Temperature
Anomalies on the Frequency of Atlantic Hurricanes," T.N. Krishnamurti
(Dept. Meteor., Florida State Univ., Tallahassee FL 32306), R.
Correa-Torres et al.,Tellus, 50A(2), 186-210, Mar. 1998.
Describes experiments involving season-long integrations of a global
spectral model using prescribed sea surface temperatures corresponding to
El Niño and La Niña conditions. Storms under doubled CO2
occurred at greater frequency only in El Niño periods. Hurricane
intensities increased slightly at doubled CO2.
Discussion: "Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the Next 50
Year Lead to Higher Frequency and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes?"
Tellus, 49A(5), 622-625, Nov. 1997.
"A 200-Year Record of Gale Frequency, Edinburgh, Scotland: Possible
Link with High-Magnitude Volcanic Eruptions," A.G. Dawson (Ctr.
Quaternary Sci., Coventry Univ., Coventry CV1 5FB, UK), K. Hickey et al.,The
Holocene, 7(3), 337-341, Sep. 1997.
Examination of what is believed to be the longest historical record of
gales in Europe shows three clear peaks in storminess that follow the
volcanic eruptions of Tambora (1815), Krakatoa (1833), and El Chichon
(1982). If this correlation has physical validity, the processes that link
large volcanic eruptions to storminess in the North Atlantic need to be
included in IPCC research that presently focuses on the effects of global
warming on storm frequency.
"An Analysis of Extra-Tropical Storms in the North Atlantic Region as
Simulated in a Control and 2 ´ CO2 Time-Slice Experiment
with a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model," J.J. Beersma (Netherlands
Meteor. Inst. KNMI, POB 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Neth.; e-mail:
firstname.lastname@example.org), K.M. Rider et al., Tellus, 49A(3),
347-361, May 1997.
Experiments with the European Center's model suggest that a
greenhouse-induced decrease in the meridional temperature gradient near
the surface will be roughly balanced by the increase of that gradient in
the upper troposphere. The net effect of CO2 doubling on
storminess is small.
"Model-Simulated Northern Winter Cyclone and Anticyclone Activity
Under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario," Y. Zhang (Clim. Model Diagnosis
Program, Lawrence-Livermore Natl. Lab., POB 808, Livermore CA 94550;
e-mail: zhang@pcmdi.LLNL.gov), W.-C. Wang,J. Clim., 10(7),
1616-1634, July 1997.
Two 100-year equilibrium simulations with the NCAR climate model
indicate that the activity of cyclonic scale eddies decreases under the
greenhouse warming scenario. Discusses three physical mechanisms that
could account for this, as well as uncertainties in the model results.
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