The U.S Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP) stands at the threshold of a major transition.
Over the next several years, in addition to continuing to improve our understanding
of the Earthís environment and how it is changing, the program will greatly
advance our knowledge about the implications of such change for society.
The research successes of the last decade have laid the foundation for
a global environmental change information service that will allow global
change research results to be applied more effectively to national needs.
Since its establishment a decade ago, the USGCRP has supported a comprehensive
program of scientific research on the multiple issues presented by climatic
and other changes in the Earth system. USGCRP-supported research has produced
substantial increases in knowledge, predictive understanding, and documented
evidence of global environmental change, including major scientific advances
in the understanding of stratospheric ozone depletion, the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation phenomenon, global climate change, tropical deforestation,
and other issues.
These interlinked problems of global environmental change present long-term
challenges at local and regional scales as well. Science has much to contribute
to the management of these challenges. In the next decade, the USGCRP will
focus on understanding the Earth system as a whole, on the dynamics of
environmental change, and on connecting that knowledge to societal needs,
including the provision of information on regional implications of change.
A series of five broad objectives are guiding the program as it pursues
Determine the origins, rates, and likely future course of
natural and anthropogenic changes.
Increase understanding of the combined effects of multiple
stresses on ecosystems.
Understand and model global environmental change and its
processes on finer spatial scales and across a wide range of timescales.
Address the potential for surprises and abrupt changes in
the global environment.
Understand and assess the impacts of global environmental
change and their consequences for the United States.
of the Program
A recent National Research
Council report, Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the
Next Decade, which was commissioned by the USGCRP, has influenced the definition
of the near-term research challenges identified in this report, and is
important input to developing a new long-term research strategy for the
USGCRP, which will be completed in FY 2000.
To respond to the scientific challenges described in the Pathways report,
the USGCRP will be organized and managed as a series of closely-linked
Program Elements. This FY 2000 Implementation Plan and Budget Overview
contains detailed descriptions of a series of research challenges and FY
2000 objectives for each Program Element.
USGCRP Program Elements
Carbon Cycle Science is receiving heightened emphasis within the USGCRP.
The need to understand how carbon cycles through the Earth system is critically
important to the ability to predict future climate change. The USGCRP is
establishing a Carbon Cycle Science Initiative, with significant new investments
proposed in the FY 2000 budget. This effort will provide critical scientific
information on the fate of carbon dioxide in the environment, the sources
and sinks of carbon dioxide on continental and regional scales, and how
sinks might change naturally over time or be enhanced by agricultural or
forestry practices. A new level of interagency coordination is being put
in place to pursue this important objective. The program will be guided
in this task by a science plan that has been drafted with extensive participation
by many of the leading scientists in this field.
Understanding the Earthís Climate System, with a focus on
improving our understanding of the climate system as a whole, rather than
focusing on its individual components, and thus improving our ability to
predict climate change and variability.
Biology and Biogeochemistry of Ecosystems, with a focus on
improving understanding of the relationship between a changing biosphere
and a changing climate and the impacts of global change on managed and
Composition and Chemistry of the Atmosphere, with a focus
on improving our understanding of the global-scale impacts of natural and
human processes on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and determining
the effect of such changes on air quality and human health.
Paleoenvironment and Paleoclimate, with a focus on providing
a quantitative understanding of the envelope of natural environmental variability,
on timescales from centuries to millennia, within which the effects of
human activities on the planetís biosphere, geosphere, and atmosphere can
Human Dimensions of Global Change, with a focus on explaining
how humans intervene in the Earth system and are themselves affected by
the interactions between natural and social processes.
The Global Water Cycle, with a focus on improving our understanding
of the movement of water through the land, atmosphere, and ocean, and on
how global change may increase or decrease regional water availability.