Some Recent Scientific Accomplishments in Predicting Seasonal to Interannual Climate Fluctuations and Related Events

• The first year-in-advance predictions of the seasonal variations in sea surface temperatures have been developed based on new knowledge about the processes that link the tropical Pacific Ocean to the global atmosphere. Similar predictions are now being issued regularly by several nations in addition to the U.S., and are being used in agricultural and water resource planning.

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  • TOGA Program Completed
  • USGCRP Scientists Extend the Predictive Skill of El Niño Forecasts
  • New Modeling Method Developed to Provide Global Forecasts

• The U.S. government is now issuing, on a monthly basis, the first-ever year-in-advance forecasts of seasonal mean temperature and precipitation for the United States. The forecasts are based on a blend of statistical and physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

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  • First Multi-seasonal Climate Forecasts Issued for U.S.

• USGCRP research results suggest that several recent severe weather events in the U.S. may be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These include the drought and heat wave in the eastern and central U.S. during the summer of 1988, the floods in the midwest during the spring and summer of 1993, and the frequent west coast storms during the early part of 1995. Analyses indicate that conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are an important (but not sole) factor influencing the atmospheric circulation patterns over the U.S.

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  • Midwest Floods in 1993 and 1995 and West Coast Storms in 1995 Related to El Niño

• The economic benefits of improved forecasts of ENSO to the agricultural sector of the southeast U.S. have been estimated as being $100 million per year or more. The economic value of improved forecasts to other agricultural regions is also likely to be large. This current assessment suggests that research to support improved ENSO forecasting will bring significant benefits to the nation.

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  • Economic Studies Indicate Significant Value of El Niño Forecasts

• Medical research has linked changes in the incidence of diseases carried by mosquitoes and rodents with changes in temperature, rainfall, and the patterns of extreme climatic variations associated with El Niño events. These findings have important implications for human health and welfare.

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  • Monitoring El Niño has Important Implications for Surveillance of Emerging Diseases

• Measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and in the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate that the 1992-93 El Niño event reduced the "normal" (non-El Niño) carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere from this region of the ocean by more than 50 percent. This may be a contributing factor in explaining the slower rates of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide during that period.

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  • El Niño Events Found to Significantly Reduce Carbon Dioxide Flux Out of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean