Organization:
Research Title: Cold Regions Research
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 1.2 |
| FY96 | 1.2 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Subcommittee (100%)
(b) Environmental Issue: Climate Change (41%), Large-Scale Changes in
Land
Use
(34%), Natural Variability (25%)
(c) Research Activity: System structure and function: Understanding (50%),
Observation
(8%); Assessment (20%); Data Management (22%)
Organizational Component:
U.S. Geological Survey
104 National Center
Reston, VA 22092
Point of Contact:
Michael Carr
Phone: 703-648-4408
Research Goals:
The Cold Regions Program includes studies (1) to document and improve
understanding
of
the processes that lead to glacier expansion and contraction, (2) to confirm the
accuracy and
reliability of precision temperature profiling in continuous permafrost areas as
a recorder of
recent climatic events, (3) to measure and monitor changes in the areal distribution
of
permafrost zones, (4) to assess the importance of the Arctic as a source of greenhouse
gases that may amplify the rate of global warming, and (5) to use satellite remote
sensing
technology to periodically monitor changes in global glacier area (present capability)
and
volume (future capability).
Research Description:
Observing, understanding, and predicting changes in the cryosphere, glaciers, frozen
ground (permafrost), snow cover, and floating ice (sea, lake, and river) are
important
to the U.S. Global Change Research program, because the cryosphere is sensitive to
global
climate warming. General circulation model (GCM) simulations indicate that any
warming
will be magnified in polar regions, potentially causing a (1) reduction in area and
volume of glaciers (producing a change in the Earth albedo and contributing to a
rise of sea level); (2) reduction in the area of permafrost (releasing methane, a
radiatively active gas 15 times more efficient than carbon dioxide); (3) reduction
in seasonal extent of snow cover (again producing a change in albedo); and (4)
reduction
in the ice, leading to a change in albedo and increase in the ocean-atmosphere
exchange
of water vapor. This program addresses goals of USGCRP concerning glacier and ice-
sheet
mass balance and polar hydrology; sea level; identification and quantification of
natural sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, and detection of environmental
change.
Accomplishments include initiating an international effort to establish areal extent of world's glaciers in the mid-1970's, demonstrating that methane is being released into the atmosphere from Arctic permafrost and gas hydrates, and obtaining bore hole temperature profiles indicating that surface air temperature on the Alaskan North Slope have increased several degrees in the last century.
Program Interfaces:
The USGS has strong cooperative ties with the governmental and academic
glaciological
community inside and outside the U.S. The USGS project "Satellite Image Atlas of
Glaciers of the World" involves cooperation with 55 scientists from 35 institutions
in 25
countries. The permafrost and methane clathrate efforts involve collaboration with
U.S.
and non-U.S. governmental and academic communities. This program contributes
to
understanding processes in cold regions, including sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases,
sea level fluctuations, and ecosystem response to
changing climate.
Program Milestones:
FY 1995: Complete installation of a network of temperature profiling wells in
permafrost
regions of the U.S., Canada, and Russia. Network will provide information on
latitudinal
and longitudinal variation and magnitude of temperature changes in the Arctic
during
the
past century.
FY 1995: Completion of satellite image atlas of the world's glaciers.
Data and reports are peer reviewed and results are published in USGS reports or
scientific
journals. This program is reviewed annually by an external panel of specialists
from
universities and other government agencies, and their recommendations are used
to
make
program adjustments.
Policy Payoffs:
Establishing rate and amount of methane released from Arctic permafrost and gas
hydrates
will improve estimates of future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
Completion
of the atlas of world's glaciers will provide a baseline for detecting any future
changes in
global ice extent. The expanded bore hole temperature profile network will establish
the
average temperature history of the Arctic for the last 100 years, thus identifying
any long-term trend.