Organization:
Research Title: Sensitivity of Water Resources
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 1.0 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 0.5 |
| FY96 | 0.0 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Subcommittee (100%)
(b) Environmental Issue: Natural Variability (100%)
(c) Research Activity: System structure and function: Understanding (50%),
Observation (8%); Assessment (20%); Data Management (22%)
Organizational Component:
U.S. Geological Survey
104 National Center
Reston, VA 22092
Point of Contact:
Michael Carr
Phone: 703-648-4408
Research Goals:
The objective of this program is to develop a capability to predict the
hydrometeorological
and water resources response to climate variability and change across the range of
environmental conditions existing in the United States. This involves the
development
and
testing of approaches to: the generation of meteorological and climatic inputs,
the
translation of these inputs to streamflow and ground-water recharge, and the
integration
of
these effects with ground-water responses to streamflow, recharge, and sea-level
changes.
It involves the nesting of climate models, and the linking of watershed models with
water
management models so that the improvements in predicting hydrometeorological
conditions
are directly translated into improvements in the management of water resources
and
water
system operations, and aquatic/ecosystem management
Research Description:
Water resources managers require improved methods for assessing the sensitivity
of
the systems they manage to seasonal and longer-term variations in weather and
climate.
Equally important is the need for methods of evaluating the risk or uncertainty
associated
with such assessments. Many of the existing predictive tools (climate, watershed,
and aquatic/ecosystem models) are not sufficiently focused on water and energy
budgets
to provide the necessary answers. Virtually all techniques of hydrologic analysis
are based on the assumption of a stationary, or unchanging climate. Climate
modeling
is limited by physical understanding and the speed of existing computers.
Hydrologic
models have traditionally been more focused on the problem of flood responses and
not the overall water budget. The need exists for improved procedures for
generating
the meteorological forcing functions within integrated climate/hydrologic models
under assumptions of a non-stationary climate. Comprehensive aquatic/ecosystem
models
are just being developed.
Program Interfaces:
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) are working
together to link watershed models with water management models. This is
providing
Federal, State, and local water resource managers with the tools and techniques to
improve
management of existing water supplies. The BOR is working with the National
Center
for
Atmospheric Research on the nesting of atmospheric models to improve prediction
of
hydrometeorological variables. The USGS is working under cooperative agreements
with
the governments of Japan and Russia on the development of improved watershed
models.
Program Milestones:
Policy Payoffs:
This program benefits policy makers and water resource users in the short term by
developing a water resource prediction and user management system consisting of
coupled
atmospheric, watershed, water routing and reservoir management models. The
joint
USGS/BOR modeling activities have already resulted in one example of improved
seasonal
water management decisions in a small watershed in the mountainous western
U.S.
It is
reasonable to expect that continued development of coupled models will improve
water
and
aquatic/ecosystem management decisions in western watersheds where the BOR
conducts
operations.