Organization: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Research Title: Developing Predictive Models

Funding Level (millions of dollars):

FY94	8.9
FY95	2.7
FY96	2.3

Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Research (100%)
(b) Environmental Issues: other
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Prediction (100%)

Organizational Component:
Office of Environmental Processes & Effects Research
Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, SW
Washington, DC 20560

Point of Contact:
Courtney Riordan
Phone: 202-260-5950

Research Goals:
To assess regional and impacts of global climate change; to predict the extent of such biospheric effects in the future and to understand how that change effects greenhouse gas fluxes.

Research Description:
This program supports the development of both diagnostic and prognostic Earth Systems Models that incorporate coupled atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric components. Working with existing modeling centers, this program explores the system structure that a scientifically credible ESM should have to serve the scientific and policy assessment needs at spatial resolutions permitting regional analysis and at temporal resolution needed for biospheric response analyses.

Program Interfaces:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and National Center for Atmospheric Research are working closely with the Environmental Research Laboratory in Athens, GA (ORD) on Earth Systems Modeling, Department of Energy.

Program Milestones:

Policy Payoffs:
1) More accurate information on quantifying sources and sinks of GHGs, 2) Better management strategies for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, 3) Understanding ecological vulnerabilities to climate change so that management decisions can be made to protect these system.