Organization:
Research Title: Global Modeling and Analysis Program
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 6.9 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 5.1 |
| FY96 | 4.4 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Research Subcommittee (100%)
(b) Environmental Issue: Climate change (50%); Natural variability (25%);
Large-scale
changes in land use (10%); Global change (15%)
(c) Research Activity: System structure/function: Prediction (100%)
Organizational Component:
Science Division
Office of Mission to Planet Earth
NASA
Headquarters
Washington DC 20546
Point of Contact:
Kenneth Bergman
Phone: 202-358-0765
E-Mail: kbergman@hq.nasa.gov
Research Goals:
(a) To develop atmospheric and land/biosphere component models and couple
them to
ocean and sea ice models to form integrated physical climate models leading
ultimately
to
full Earth system models. (b) To develop parameterizations for key processes in such
models. c) To develop and implement a state-of-science model-driven data
assimilation
system capable of ingesting new satellite based data along with other data, with
the goal of
providing research quality Earth system data sets to the community. (d) To use both
model
integrations and assimilated data sets to increase understanding of climatic and
Earth system
processes.
Research Description:
This activity consists of three components: (a) development and application of
atmospheric
models and coupling them with other Earth system component models; (b)
development
and application of land surface/biospheric models and coupling them with other
Earth
system component models; and (c) development and implementation of a model
driven
data
assimilation capability that is capable of ingesting EOS and other new remotely
sensed
observations along with all other observations and producing research quality
model-assimilated
data sets. These research activities are directed toward contributing to the
following overall research activities of the Earth System Modeling and Global
Analysis
Branch of NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth:
Global Model Development and Integration- Research involving the development and improvement of numerical models at supra-regional to global scales for understanding global change. Supra-regional scale specifically refers to ocean basin, major drainage basin, or continental, as appropriate.
Global Data Assimilation and Analysis - The development and application of coupled Earth system models which assimilate satellite and other data to produce internally consistent, comprehensive data sets on supra-regional to global scales. The end result of this research is the production of geophysical, chemical, and biological data fields for model testing and validation, as well as generalized analysis of earth system variability and trends.
Climate Diagnostics, Sensitivity Studies, and Assessments - The refinement of models and the conduct of focused model experiments to produce specific predictions of the response of the future environment to projected stresses at the global scale with at least regional resolution. This includes research to determine model sensitivity, error propagation characteristics, and validity.
Program Interfaces:
This activity is part of the Earth System Modeling and Global Analysis research
activity
of
NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The activity is coordinated with other related
agency
activities through the Integrative Modeling and Prediction Task Group of the
Subcommittee
on Global Change Research of Committee on Environment and Natural Resources
(CENR). The activity also receives guidance from several
National Research Council committees, most notably the Climate Research
Committee.
Within NASA, the activity is coordinated with the Earth Observing System
Program's
Interdisciplinary Science and Data and Information System activities.
Program Milestones:
(a) A state-of-science coupled climate system model capable of providing predictions
on
interannual to century time scales that are useful for assessments by 1998, with
the longer
term goal of a full Earth system modeling capability. (b) An operational model
driven
data
assimilation system capable of ingesting new satellite observations by 1998, to be
implemented as an on-going EOSDIS capability to generate model-assimilated data
sets.
Policy Payoffs:
(a) Ability to provide state-of-science global climate model predictions
on interannual to century time scales that can be used as input to assessments of
the impacts
of climate variability and global change on socioeconomic interests. Also, provide
a basis
for development of full Earth system models useful for integrated assessments of
the Earth
system. (b) Ability to provide a comprehensive data set that includes new kinds
of satellite
based data as well as other available data, along with value added by the physical
and
dynamical constraints of an assimilating model, that can be used by researchers
to track
Earth system variability and change and to initialize and validate Earth system
models.
Ultimate payoffs are improved understanding of Earth system and improved ability
to
monitor and predict its behavior, leading to more accurate and reliable assessments
for
socioeconomic policymakers.