Organization:
Research Title: Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 14.2 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 12.2 |
| FY96 | 11.5 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Research Subcommittee (100%)
NSTC Committee on Fundamental Science
(b) Environmental Issue: Natural variability
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Understanding
(100%)
Organizational Component:
Directorate for Geosciences Physical
Oceanography
Division of Ocean Sciences
National Science Foundation
4201 Wilson
Boulevard
Arlington, VA 22230
Point of Contact:
Sanker Rao Mopodevi
Phone: 703-306-1527
E-Mail: smopide@nsf.gov
Research Goals:
To investigate seasonal-to-interannual variability of the coupled tropical ocean-
global
atmosphere system in order to determine and understand its controlling physical
processes
and its predictability and to apply this knowledge to climate prediction.
Research Description:
The TOGA focus has been on the Pacific where the primary interannual signal,
ENSO
(El
Niño Southern Oscillation), is the strongest. The best known ENSO
phenomenon is
the
strong warming of coastal waters off the west coast of South America, which has
significant and frequently devastating effects on local fisheries and which may affect
both
local and global weather and climate patterns, particularly precipitation and storm
patterns.
The TOGA Program meets its objectives with research studies on specific
mechanisms
and
processes of air-sea interaction, research on coupled ocean-atmosphere models, and
with
an observational system that now routinely monitors the equatorial Pacific. For
example,
the ability to watch the development of the 1986-87 event was impressive and
unprecedented. This real-time monitoring system is expected to continue as part
of the
Global Ocean Observing System. TOGA COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Response
Experiment) recently completed a highly successful international (18 countries) field
project. TOGA COARE examined ocean-atmosphere exchanges over the western
Pacific
warm pool where ENSO events originate. TOGA advances also include the
demonstration
of a useful predictive capability for ENSO and the establishment of the rudimentary
elements of an operational data assimilation and prediction system.
As the ten-year (1985-1994) TOGA program comes to an end, national and
international
plans request follow-up programs to build on its successes. Internationally, CLIVAR
(A
Study of CLImate VARiability and Predictability) is a new WCRP Program (World
Climate
Research Program) designed to extend the research emphasis on climate variability
and
predictability to the global domain over short (seasonal-to-interannual) and long
(decadal-to-century) time scales. Nationally, GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-
Land
System) is
proposed as the US contribution to the seasonal-to-interannual focus of CLIVAR.
Oversight and evaluation of the US component of the program is provided through
the
TOGA Panel and the Climate Research Committee of the National Academy of
Sciences.
Program Interfaces:
In the U.S., the principal players are NOAA and NSF, with NASA contributing to
studies
of surface fluxes and coupled ocean-atmosphere models and ONR contributing to
process
studies. Internationally, TOGA is a major member of the World Climate Research
Program
(WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International
Council
of Scientific Unions (ICSU). It is also supported by UNESCO's Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and ICSU's Scientific Committee on Oceanic
Research
(SCOR). Fifteen countries are primary contributors to TOGA. Representatives of
the
international community met in Geneva in May, 1986, to discuss potential resources
commitments to be applied to WCRP programs, including TOGA. An
Intergovernmental
TOGA Board (ITB) was subsequently approved by both WMO and IOC, to be
responsible
for implementing these commitments. The primary beneficiaries are the natural
resource
(agriculture and fisheries) managers in the countries in the tropics.
Program Milestones:
(1) Expand the TOGA domain to a global domain through the implementation of
CLIVAR
(A Study of CLImate VARiability and Predictability)and GOALS (Global Ocean-
Atmosphere-Land
System) by 1997. (2) Improved predictions of climatic and
meteorological events, such as the monsoons, the frequency of tropical storms in
relation to
El Niño and weather and climate events in mid-latitudes by the year 2000.
Policy Payoffs:
U.S. and international policies related to the climate's natural variability and
its impacts on
societal structures have directly benefited from these endeavors. For example,
short-term
(6 months to a year) ENSO predictions are now used by several countries to reduce
crop
failures and livestock death during severe droughts. Measurements of sea level
changes
have proven to be a useful predictor of fishery abundance surrounding the
Hawaiian
Islands. Coastal states will be interested in improved predictions of the frequency
of
tropical storms in relation to El Niño.