Organization:
Research Title: Earth System History (ESH)
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 6.8 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 9.0 |
| FY96 | 9.4 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Research Subcommittee (100%)
NSTC Committee on Fundamental Science
(b) Environmental Issue: Natural Variability - 70%; Climate Change -
10%; Changes in
Land Use - 10%; Ocean Ecosystems - 10%
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Observations - 80%;
Prediction - 20%
Organizational Component:
Directorate for Geosciences Division of Atmospheric
Sciences
4201 Wilson Boulevard
Arlington, VA 22230
Point of Contact:
Herman B. Zimmerman
Phone: 703-306-1527
E-Mail: hzimmerm@nsf.gov
Research Goals:
To understand the full range and character of the natural variability of the Earth's
environmental system through records preserved in geo-biologic materials and to
produce
a
comprehensive theory of climate change on decadal to millennial time scales,
including
the
forcing mechanisms, interactions and feedbacks among the Earth's environmental
subsystems.
Research Description:
The Earth System History Program is a focused paleoscience research effort designed
to
provide a quantitative understanding of the Earth's past environment and to define
the
envelope of natural environmental variability within which we can assess
anthropogenic
impact on the Earth's biosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere and atmosphere. To
accomplish
this, the Earth System History Program supports the systematic compilation of, high
quality physical, chemical, and biological paleorecords of climatic and
environmental
changes and events. Support is directed towards the quantification and
development
of
biotic and geochemical proxy indicators for past Earth system processes and the
improvement of geochronological techniques. The analysis of the sensitivity of
climate
and
the relationship of forcing mechanisms (e.g., atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations)
to changes in terrestrial and oceanic states will also be supported under this
program.
Central to the ESH Program will be the development and testing of models of the
processes
of climate change and the evaluation of climate models with paleoclimate data and
information. A key objective of the ESH Program to provide the
paleoenvironmental
knowledge required for the evaluation of predictive climate models.
Major ESH field programs include ship and land-based field observations; these
campaigns
are currently on-going and being planned for the 1995-1999 time frame. ESH
participates
in multi-agency and international field projects which include studies of the
hierarchy
of
climate control mechanisms, the dynamics of transequatorial atmospheric linkages,
the
paleomonsoon as a teleconnection process in low latitude regions and the influence
of the
central Asian highlands (the "third pole") on global climate.
Program Interfaces:
The ESH Program is part of a multi-agency and international research effort. ESH
works
closely with NOAA and the USGS to ensure the long-term support base for the U.S.
effort
in the application of the paleosciences to Global Change issues. At the international
level,
this effort is directed through Past Global Changes (PAGES), a core project of the
IGBP/ICSU. ESH is responsive to the needs of the PAGES/IGBP by focusing on
observational, analytical and interpretative activities on a societal time scale.
PAGES is
organized to integrate ice, ocean and terrestrial paleorecords and encourages the
creation of
consistent analytical and data-base methodologies within the international
paleosciences.
This vital step is required for the establishment of an effective global network
of reliable
paleorecords for the production of paleoclimatic simulations and for the
reconstruction
of a
comprehensive environmental history of the Earth.
Program Milestones:
1995-97: Initiation of an international network of paleoclimate transects with the
goal of
understanding inter-hemispheric climate interaction and establishing the spatial
and
temporal natural variability of global climate. 1996-99: Carry out research on the
tropical
climate record to establish ENSO and monsoonal variability on annual to decadal
time
scales; correlation of ice volume and atmospheric composition records; initiate
studies
of
drought/flood patterns for North America. 1996-99: Conduct model
intercomparison
experiments and evaluate models with paleodata
Policy Payoffs:
ESH will provide the historical perspective of the key elements of global change
on
societal time scales. This will establish the initial conditions of the Earth system
prior to
human intervention and help to disentangle anthropomorphic-induced changes
from the
natural response to external forcing mechanisms and internal system dynamics.
ESH
research will determine the rates of ecosystem response to climate change and the
potential
to re-populate an environment. Results of model evaluations will be required for
policymakers in determining the reliability of model predictions.