Organization:
Research Title: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC)
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 5.2 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 6.7 |
| FY96 | 7.4 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Research Subcommittee (100%)
NSTC Committee on Fundamental Science
(b) Environmental Issue: Large-scale Changes in Ocean Ecosystems (70%);
Natural
Variability (30%)
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Understand
(100%)
Organizational Component:
Division of Ocean Sciences
NSF, Biological Oceanography Program
OCE/NSF, Room 725
4201 Wilson Blvd.
Arlington, VA 22230
Point of Contact:
Philip Taylor
Phone: 703-306-1587
E-Mail: prtaylor@nsf.gov
Research Goals:
GLOBEC's purpose is to determine the impact of global climate change on marine
ecosystems, specifically mechanisms that determine the variability of marine
animal
populations, which will permit assessments and predictions of population changes
of living
resources from coral reefs to fish stocks in a changing environment.
Research Description:
Marine animal populations can exhibit huge oscillations on time scales from
seasonal
to
decadal. The dramatic example of the anchoveta off Peru helped form the basis for
our
understanding of how climate processes of the atmosphere and ocean, i.e., ENSO,
work
to
control ocean circulation, temperature, rainfall and the important marine resources
of the
region. GLOBEC models of ecosystem dynamics and physical/biological interactions
will
link with physical models developed in WOCE and TOGA to predict population,
and
ecosystem responses. Ecosystem accommodation of global changes, and the role of
species shifts vs. evolutionary changes in this process will vary with the type and
intensity
of the changing environmental factors, such as changes in meso- to basin-scale
circulation,
elevated temperatures, relative importance of ocean physical structures (fronts,
eddies,
vertical stratification). Understanding these features and their influence on
populations,
their prey, predators, and competitors, both singly and in composite will provide
the
framework for predicting responses to global change.
Program Interfaces:
GLOBEC is a NSF/NOAA program; ONR is a partner in technology development.
GLOBEC grew out of community workshops and recommendations of an NAS
report.
GLOBEC is the U.S. component of the IOC, SCOR/ICSU, ICES, PICES sponsored
international GLOBEC program with 10 national programs established.
International
cooperation has been instrumental in the U.S. regional programs, in particular the
Cod and
Climate Change program of ICES and Southern Ocean research. GLOBEC 's first
focus
on the NW Atlantic ecosystem stems from strong evidence of ecosystem response to
large
scale climate change. This is the U.S. part of the pan-N. Atlantic ICES program.
Other
GCRP programs (WOCE, NOAA's ACCP) will provide physical data sets and
models.
Ongoing NOAA-NMFS ecosystem programs, the Canadian OPEN program and ICES
activities contribute resources to the problem. Predicting marine animal
populations
dynamics is an absolutely fundamental requisite for other GCRP goals, e.g., JGOFS
predictions of biogeochemical fluxes in the ocean will eventually require a the
prediction
of
animal population dynamics. Results from GLOBEC and JGOFS will be coupled to
predict how the variability in animal populations and communities will change the
function
of the biological pump and the
9: Program Milestones
Implementation and completion of an international biological-physical field
program
in the
North Atlantic by the end of 1996; (2) implementation of field programs focusing
on the
California Current in 1996, (3) completion of planning of a Southern ocean field
program
to be implemented in 1998 and (4) expansion of long time-series observations using
the
continuous plankton recorder survey to these areas to complement process studies.
Policy Payoffs:
A much enhanced understanding of the factors that control populations and
production
in
marine ecosystems is essential to provide predictions and assessments of effects
of climate
change on marine ecosystems. It is essential for the preservation and utilization
of living
resources in the sea, but also because marine animals are pivotal in shaping ocean
ecosystems and in cycling biogenic materials. The ecological settings of GLOBEC's
currently planned studies (e.g., NW Atlantic, California Current, Southern Ocean)
harbor
major marine resources that must be managed by NOAA , industry, and
international
counterparts. GLOBEC programs will deal directly with issues of the role of
biodiversity
in
the target marine systems and how diversity is likely to be altered in marine
systems.