Organization:
Research Title: Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies (JGOFS)
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 15.4 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 16.8 |
| FY96 | 19.4 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Subcommittee (100%)
NSTC Committee on Fundamental Science
(b) Environmental Issue: Climate Change(60%); Natural Variability (20%);
Large-scale
Changes in Ocean Ecosystems (20%)
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Understand
(100%)
Organizational Component:
Ocean Sciences Division
NSF, Ocean Sciences Research Section
OCE/NSF, Room 725
4201 Wilson Blvd.
Arlington, VA 22230
Point of Contact:
Neil Anderson
Phone: 703-306-1589
E-Mail: nanderse@nsf.gov
Research Goals:
To determine and understand on a global scale the processes controlling the time-
varying
fluxes of carbon and associated biogenic elements in the ocean, and to evaluate the
related
exchanges with the atmosphere, sea floor and continental boundaries. To develop
a
capacity to predict on a global scale the response of oceanic biogeochemical processes
to
anthropogenic perturbations, in particular those related to climate change.
Research Description:
The Program elements consist of time-series stations, process studies, a global
survey of
ocean CO
2 chemistry, data management and modeling. Each year some 40% of
the
fossil
fuel CO
2 added to the atmosphere is transferred to the sea, and the imprint of
this signal
now provides a significant perturbation of ocean chemistry. Policy makers are
concerned
with regulating the build up of atmospheric CO
2, and need accurate information on current
status and future trends. Models accounting for this process typically use a simple
abiological ocean, and the fossil fuel signal appears in such models as written on
a blank,
or constant background. The ocean contains large time-varying gradients of the
natural
cycle on which the fossil fuel signal is superimposed. JGOFS experiments are
designed
to
observe and constrain this natural cycle so that the changes of man are truly
discernible.
In
the future it is quite possible that climatic change can perturb this natural cycle,
forcing
further changes in the CO
2 system, and affecting life processes over 70% of the earth's
surface. JGOFS seeks to attain national and international consensus and scientific
understanding of these issues. The potential role of increased atmospheric CO
2 in
influencing the marine animal populations will be addressed by the linking of
JGOFS
and
GLOBEC. In a similar linkage, the interaction of the ocean and continental margins
will be
realized through coordination with LOICZ. Two major process studies, both multi-
agency
and multi-national, have been executed, two time-series stations, are in operation,
and
approximately one third of the global survey goals have already been met. A
research
satellite dedicated to the program is scheduled for a 1995 launch.
Program Interfaces:
The U.S. JGOFS Program grew out of the recommendations of a 1984 National
Academy
of Sciences workshop. It is a major and leading component of the international
program
JGOFS, established three years later, which now numbers more than 30 nations
among
its
participants, and is a "Core Project" of the IGBP. National and international partners
include related global change programs which cooperate with JGOFS (i.e., WOCE,
GLOBEC, TOGA and IGAC and their U.S. equivalents). In addition, NOAA's Global
Change Program and NASA's Ocean Biogeochemistry Program are integral
components of
the U.S. JGOFS. Beneficiaries include the scientific community, at large, who need
a
better description of the ocean's role in the global carbon cycle and policy makers
who rely
on this community for advice.
Program Milestones:
(1) Completion of analysis of data from the Equatorial Pacific carbon flux field
program by
the end of 1995; (2) completion of the 14-month field international field campaign
on the
Arabian Sea monsoonal flux regime and (3) continued planning for 1997
implementation
of
the Southern ocean flux field program.
Policy Payoffs:
The ocean is a major sink for carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, through surface
primary
production, and ultimate burial in sediments. Yet there is still major uncertainty
regarding
the absolute magnitude and its relation to terrestrial uptake. Models suggest uptake
varies by season and region. Accurately quantifying this variability observationally
will
provide the needed input for predictive climate models. Only then can reliable
projections
be made regarding the extent and geographical variability of future global warming,
and
national mitigation policies implemented with full knowledge of the economic
costs
vs.
payoffs.