Organization: Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Research Title: Economics of Global Change and Agriculture

Funding Level (millions of dollars):

FY94 0.8
FY95 0.8
FY96 0.8

Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Global Change Subcommittee (100%)
(b) Environmental Issue: Climate change (80%); Large-scale changes in land use (20%)
(c) Research Activity: Impacts and Adaptation: Socioeconomic Systems (100%)

Organizational Component:
Technology Natural Resources & Environment Division,
Economic Research Service
Room 524, 1301 New York Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20005-4788

Point of Contact:
John Reilly
Phone: 202-219-0450
E-Mail: jmreilly@econ.ag.gov

Research Goals:
To determine the impacts of potential global environmental change on land use and on the performance of the agricultural system.

Research Description:
Research focuses on development of models to analyze economic response to climatic change under different technology and resource conditions, including interactions between agricultural production, trade and land use. The models contribute to the analysis and development of alternative adjustments to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change and evaluation of the role of land use policies in limiting net greenhouse gas emissions. Development of secondary data sources and GIS to implement the research are also supported.

Program Interfaces:
Research contributes to U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to Integrated Analysis efforts funded by DOE, EPA, and NOAA.

Program Milestones:
FY 1995, publication of documentation of and results from a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of climate change; conference on economic assessment of impacts of global change on agriculture, featuring internal and extramural research projects; cross-country econometric analysis of the relationship between climate and supply response of major crops, prepare agricultural impacts chapter for WG-II, IPCC. FY 1995-6, on-going research on general equilibrium impacts of domestic and international impacts. A specific focus of future work is investigating climate change in the context of global agricultural sustainability.

Policy Payoffs:
Improved assessments and modeling will contribute to improved cost-benefit analysis of policy actions, contribution to international convention on climate change through the IPCC.