Organization:
Research Title: Forest Global Change
Funding Level (millions of dollars):
| FY94 | 22.0 |
|---|---|
| FY95 | 23.0 |
| FY96 | 17.1 |
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Component:
(a) Subcommittee: Biological Diversity and Ecosystem Research Subcommittee
(45%)
Global Change Research Subcommittee (35%)
Water Resources/Coastal and Marine Environments Research Subcommittee (20%)
NSTC Committee on Fundamental Science
(b) Environmental Issue: Understanding Processes (60%); Determining Rate
and
Consequences of Change (20%) Obtaining Information Base (20%)
(c) Research Activity: System Structure and Function: Understanding (50%);
Impacts and
Adaptation: Ecosystems (40%)
Integrated Assessment (10%)
Organizational Component:
USDA/NRICGP
AG Box 2241
Washington, D.C.
20250-2241
Point of Contact:
Elvia Niebla
Phone 202-205-1561
E-Mail: /s=e.niebla/ou1=w)1c@mhs-fswa.attmail.com
Research Goals:
Provides scientific information to support wise decisions on forest management policy
in
the face of current uncertainty about global change.
Research Description:
All Forest Service Global Change Research Program (FSGCRP) projects contribute to
one
or more of four major program elements. The atmosphere/biosphere gas and energy
exchange program element examines the way climate and atmospheric chemistry impact,
or
are changed by, the biological world. The second program element, disturbance ecology,
assesses the potential impact that increased occurrences and severity of fire, insects,
and
disease episodes may have on forest ecosystems. As the third component, ecosystem
dynamics focuses on the response of terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems to global change,
analyzes the plant and animal composition of the system - including threatened and
endangered species - evaluates water quality and quantity, and assesses environmental
impacts on vegetation and soils. Finally, human activities and natural resource
interactions
research addresses the way global change will impact human activities and how human
activities, through agriculture and resource management, in a changed environment
will
affect forest and rangelands.
Program Interfaces:
Primary interfaces are with National Forest Systems; DOI agencies (F&WS, NPS, BIA,
and BLM); other USDA agencies (ARS, SCS, CSRS); EPA; NASA; NOAA; DOE;
conservation groups; university scientists and research institutes; State forestry
agencies;
natural resources, and environmental quality agencies; and foreign governments.
Program Milestones:
In 1994, predict changes in species composition and distribution from global change;
identify adaptive mechanisms of species in forest ecosystems and their implications
for
Ecosystem Management; complete models capable of predicting ecosystem response to
climate change and other stressors; model the output of forest fire smoke under various
global change projections and incorporate pest damage as a function of climate in
forest
output projections; and identify historical relationships among climate change, ecosystem
conditions, and society. In 1995, develop models capable of integrating ecosystem
impacts
into Ecosystem Management planning, and develop interim assessments of findings and
recommendations for future research; interface models with GCMs through interagency
and
other collaborative modeling efforts; initiate field research on trace gas emissions
from
Boreal forest ecosystems; incorporate forest pest and fire disturbance in terrestrial
ecosystem models; detect expected changes in resource outputs and values in forest
health
and productivity; and identify how associated values will change the way society
uses
forest resources in order to integrate changes into policy and Ecosystem Management
planning. In 1996, increase our understanding of ecosystem management in the context
of
global environmental changes by accelerating a national assessment of the effects
of global
change on forest ecosystems and human interactions with forests; test models and
accelerate Boreal field experiments (focus on gas emissions from large forest fires);
determine projected forest fire occurrence on global basis as a function of GCM output;
provide assessment of strategies for mitigating increased forest pest damage with
global
change; and conduct an economic analysis of biological impacts to use as a management
tool enabling the Forest Service, State, and private landowners to determine how
to allocate
limited resources in protecting forests.
Policy Payoffs:
FSGCRP has as one of its objectives the provision of scientific information for
policymakers and land use managers. It shares a common goal with the Resource Planning
Act (RPA) assessment of identifying current and future forest conditions and alternative
policy responses. Plans to share data bases and coordinate modeling efforts with
the RPA
assessment will strengthen the Forest Service leadership role in assessing the impacts
of
global change on society. The Forest Service has worked with other Federal agencies
under the Subcommittee of Global Change structure to develop the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. The FSGCRP continues to be active in the process and supports
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) goals and objectives. The Forest Service has also been active in Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) planning and the FSGCRP incorporates knowledge
gained in those activities.