Central Purposes of the U.S. Global Change Research Program To observe and document changes in the Earth system To understand why these changes are occurring To improve predictions of future global change To analyze the environmental, socio-economic, and health consequences of global change To support state-of-the-science assessments of global environmental change issues

The Earth System and Global Change Research

• Predictions of climate fluctuations from season to season are now being made with longer lead times than previously. Several forecasting methods based on computer models successfully predicted the onset of the 1997-98 El Niño event with sufficient lead time so that actions could be taken to minimize damage from predicted flooding rains.

• Paleoclimate studies--studies of past variations in the climate-- indicate that, by the end of the next century, global average temperatures could be warmer than any that have occurred on the Earth in several million years. In addition, current climate models indicate that the rate of global warming projected for the next century could be more rapid than any natural warming that has occurred since the end of the last Ice Age more than 10,000 years ago.

• Recent research results, in concert with previously reported findings of decreasing halogen levels in the troposphere, prove that the regulation of halogen-containing molecules under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is affecting stratospheric composition. The results further strengthen the evidence that the phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) will significantly reduce amounts of stratospheric chlorine.

• Observation and monitoring from space of changing land cover, along with the production and distribution of global land cover data sets, are providing an important foundation for efforts to make land use more sustainable. For example, satellite observations supported by the USGCRP in coordination with international projects have documented changes in tropical and sub-tropical land cover, especially the loss of tropical forests.

Science in Support of the Policy Process

The FCCC was the first international policy agreement to address the issue of human-induced climate change due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Based largely on the scientific assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the FCCC was concluded in 1992. More than 160 nations are Parties to the FCCC, including the United States. Among other goals, the FCCC calls for enhancement of mitigation and adaptation policies based on our understanding of global change and its consequences.

In December 1997, the Third Conference of the Parties to the FCCC was held in Kyoto, Japan, to strengthen post-2000 commitments under the Framework Convention. Among other commitments relating to reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol that emerged from the meeting recognized the need for the nations of the world to "cooperate in scientific and technological research to reduce uncertainties related to the climate system, the adverse impacts of climate change and the economic and social consequences of various response strategies."

The United States, through the USGCRP, supports the world's most comprehensive set of climate research activities. Research supported by the USGCRP has been and will remain central to the development of the international scientific assessments that underlie the Framework Convention and any related agreements. The 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Report provided much of the scientific basis for the negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol. The United States will continue to play a leading role in the IPCC, which is preparing to conduct the Third Assessment Report, scheduled for completion in late 2000 or early 2001.

Global Change and Regional Implications

At the same time, the USGCRP has been actively building links between research advances and society's application of new knowledge in particular regions and sectors. Key areas of research that could enhance these links include:

1. Regional estimates of the timing and magnitude of global change.  An important USGCRP priority is to improve capabilities to project climate change and other aspects of global change on a regional basis.
2. Regional analyses of the environmental and societal consequences of global change, in the context of other stresses.  Policymakers, resource managers, and the public need projections of the consequences of global change for their regions. Each region is unique, and climate change and other aspects of global change will act with other stresses and conditions to affect society and regional ecosystems.
3. Integrated assessments of the implications for society and the environment of global change.  Policy and management decisions related to global change could affect many aspects of society. To support these decisions, careful analyses combining economics, the social sciences, and the physical, biological, and health sciences are needed on both regional and global scales.

The Consequences of Climate Variability and Climate Change for the United States: A National Assessment Process

The process involves a broad spectrum of stakeholders from government, business, academia, and other interested parties. As an initial step, 20 workshops, encompassing every state and territory, are identifying distinctive regional characteristics and potential consequences of climate change and variability (see accompanying table). At a U.S. Climate Forum held in Washington, DC, in November 1997, more than 400 participants started discussion of the national- scale issues that must be addressed during the assessment.

The next phase will include a set of regional assessments, a set of sectoral assessments, and a synthesis that draws together the regional and sectoral assessments in a summary for policymakers. A National Assessment report will be issued in 1999, which will incorporate the regional and sectoral analyses and the national synthesis (see Chapter 4 for more details).

Results of the National Assessment process will, in turn, feed back into the research enterprise, by helping to clarify the critical societal needs that research must help to address. An assessment-oriented research program dedicated to supporting the development of policy-relevant information for decisionmakers will be implemented as part of the USGCRP.

1997 Workshops
Region	Organizing Institution(s)	Dates	Coordinating Agency(s)
Central Great Plains	Colorado State University and University of Nebraska/NIGEC	May 27-29	DOE
Alaska	University of Alaska	June 3-6	DOI
Southeast	University of Alabama, Huntsville and Florida State University	June 25-27	NASA, NOAA
Pacific Northwest	University of Washington	July 14-16	NOAA, NASA
Southwest	University of Arizona	September 3-5	DOI, NOAA
New England	University of New Hampshire	September 3-5	NSF
Middle-Atlantic	Pennsylvania State University	September 9-11	EPA
Northern Great Plains	University of North Dakota	November 5-7	NASA
1998 Workshops
Region	Organizing Institution(s)	Tentative Dates	Coordinating Agency(s)
Rocky Mountains and Great Basin	Utah State University	February 16-18	DOI
Gulf Coast	Southern University and A&M College	February 25-27	EPA
Southwest Border	University of Texas - El Paso	March 2-4	NASA
Hawaii and Pacific Islands	Center for the Application of Research on the Environment; University of Hawaii	March 3-6	FEMA, DOI, NOAA
California	University of California, Santa Barbara	March 9-11	NSF
Metropolitan East Coast	Columbia University	March 23-24	NSF
Great Lakes	University of Michigan	May 5-7	EPA
Appalachians	West Virginia University	May 26-29	USDA-FS
Eastern Midwest	Indiana University	June 29-30	USDA
Caribbean/Southern Atlantic Coast	Florida International University	July 21-23	NOAA
Southern Great Plains	Texas A&M University	June or September	USDA
Tribal Lands		September	NASA

Return to: Table of Contents
Go to: Chapter 2. Global Change Issues: Highlights of Recent and Ongoing Research