PROGRAM TITLE:		Regional Resolving Models, Navy Ocean 
			Modeling/Prediction Program, Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric
ACTIVITY STREAM:	Integrated Modeling and Prediction
SCIENCE ELEMENT:	Climate and Hydrologic Systems


SCIENTIFIC MERIT: The overall goal of this research is to understand 
meso- and large-scale ocean/atmosphere (including ice) interactions 
through the use of coupled models.  The models are expected to 
provide seasonal predictions of the wind driven circulation, 
particularly in the tropical oceans.  The use of data assimilation 
techniques and the enhancement of model resolution is expected to 
improve prdictive capabilities at the higher lattitudes.  
Improvements in parameterizations of cloud physics and radiative 
transfer will lead to fully coupled ocean/atmosphere prediction 
systems.  The prime Navy interest is the development 
nowcast/forecast capabilities.  The models must nevertheless be 
physically and thermodynamically correct and must be  numerically 
stable on a seasonal (and longer)time scales.  A low resolution (1/2o) 
model has consistently modeled equatorial Pacific ENSO events.  It 
will be will be upgraded to 1/8o resolution in FY-94 and a data 
assimilation capability will be added in FY-95.  Considerable progress 
has been acheived in reducing climate drift in coupled systems.  
Fully coupled ocean/atmosphere systems are expected by FY-98 or 
sooner.  An ocean/atmosphere ice prediction system is currently 
being tested for eventual operational use.   
STAKEHOLDERS:  This program is coordinated with NSF, NOAA, NASA 
and DOE sponsored programs.  ONR and NRL scientists are on TOPEX 
and ERS-1 teams, are members of WOCE and SCOR working groups 
and have well established ties with the TOGA-COARE program.  The 
Sea Ice program has research partners at Dartmouth, the University 
of Colorado and maintains liaison with counterparts at NASA. 
Numerically generated ice predictions used operationally by the joint 
NOAA/NAVY Polar Ice Prediction Center.
POLICY RELEVANCE:  This research has and will continue to improve 
seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean and atmospheric 
phenomena.  The fundamental goal is to provide objective guidance 
for the near-term issues (<3 years) while providing stable models to 
"nest" in the decadal and longer prediction models.  For example, a 
global circulation model, driven by Fleet Numerical Oceanography 
Center (FNOC) winds, correctly predicted the propagation of a large 
Kelvin wave, the primary ENSO phenomenon, across the equatorial 
Pacific during the December 1992 through February 1993 period.  
An Arctic ice prediction model which accurately simulates the 
seasonal change of the ice edge and the response of the marginal ice 
zone is being transitioned for operational implementation.  A wind 
forced circulation model of the Indian Ocean, validated against 
observations, demonstrated a realistic response to monsoonal 
changes.  The model predictions of sea surface height agreed closely 
with the NASA TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter measurements.      
PROGRAM CONTACT:  Mr Robert Peloquin, ONR, 800 N Quincy Street, 
Arlington, VA 22217 (703) 696-6462.