PROGRAM TITLE: 	Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment
ACTIVITY STREAM:  	Assessment and Process Studies
SCIENCE ELEMENT:  	Climatic and Hydrologic Systems


SCIENTIFIC MERIT:  TVA is conducting assessments of how climate changes 
and variations may affect its various programs and the resources of the TVA 
region.  The reservoir system, power system, natural resources, agriculture, 
silviculture, and economic development are all subject to this concern.  
Improvements in understanding the natural processes in the TVA region 
and the effects of human activities on them will also be gained from this 
assessment program.  An integrating theme is to improve the capacity to 
assess the effects of global change at regional scales on intensively managed 
natural terrestrial ecosystems.  The approach involves development of 
regional climate scenarios to assess, analysis of regional-global climate pattern 
relationships, assessment of potential impacts in each program area and on 
an integrated basis, and strategic planning to develop options or contingency 
plans.  Initial screening has been conducted and climate scenario impact 
assessments have been started.  An initial regional climatic data base is being 
expanded.  Three climate scenarios for the next 30-50 years and a "no change" 
climate have been defined.  Scenario methods of others and output from 
regional climate models initialized by output from global climate models will 
be evaluated to improve TVA region scenarios.
STAKEHOLDERS:  Cooperative efforts and coordination with other federal 
water resource and land management agencies such as USDA (USFS, SCS, 
etc.), DOI (USGS, NPS, etc.), and USACE; EPA, DOE (including Oak Ridge 
National Laboratory), NASA, NOAA (NWS climate organizations and three 
regional climate centers), and the Southern Appalachian Man and the 
Biosphere consortium; and interactions with Electric Power Research 
Institute, NCAR, and university researchers.  State governments, utilities, 
environmental organizations, and industry and commerce in the region 
should all benefit, and results and methods may transfer to other parts of the 
nation and the world.  
POLICY RELEVANCE:  Sensitivities to climate changes/variations will be 
identified and strategic planning will be initiated.  Assessment methodologies 
and improved knowledge of terrestrial-atmospheric processes on this 
regional scale will provide information for improving resource management, 
adaptation and mitigation strategies, and education of policymakers and the 
public in this country and other parts of the world.  Regional-scale 
considerations are a critical part of the national and international concerns 
regarding the issue of global change.  
PROGRAM CONTACTS:  James F. Meagher, TVA, P.O. Box 1010, Muscle 
Shoals, AL 35660, (205) 386-2342 (Programmatic); Norris A. Nielsen, same 
address, (205) 386-3036 (Scientific).